Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
OKC went from 77% to 81% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- AJ DybantsaPoints19
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game75–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter75–114
- Q410.1shot clock turnover75–114
- Q429.3Micah Peavy defensive rebound75–114
- Q429.3Will Riley misses 23-foot running jump shot75–114
- Q434.5Brooks Barnhizer lost ball turnover (Tre Mann steals)75–114
- Q447.3Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointer75–114
- Q41:09Bub Carrington defensive rebound72–114
- Q41:09Josh Dix misses 25-foot three point jumper72–114
- Q41:25Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 272–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:24Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 9 – 8 OKC · WSH 17% → 22% +5WSH 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q14:35Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 1-foot two point shotWSH 13 – 15 OKC · OKC 79% → 82% +3OKC 79% → 82%+3 pts
- Q13:56Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot dunk (AJ Dybantsa assists)WSH 16 – 15 OKC · WSH 19% → 23% +3WSH 19% → 23%+3 pts
- Q13:38Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 18-foot step back jumpshotWSH 16 – 17 OKC · OKC 77% → 81% +3OKC 77% → 81%+3 pts
- Q11:22Bub Carrington makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Trae Young assists)WSH 19 – 21 OKC · WSH 14% → 18% +4WSH 14% → 18%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Fair odds
- OKC -431
- WSH +431 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.5 – 118.6 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1645 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +61 | −77 | WSH: Missing Anthony Davis (40% to sit) −31, Tristan Vukcevic −3, Justin Champagnie −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −40, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +200 Elo | OKC 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 112.017th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 107.45th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +4.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 110.818th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 106.36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.021st of 30 |
| 18th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 20th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 15336th of 30 |
| 29th of 301339 | Elo rating | 16671st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–6 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.