Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 60% to 74% over 10 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTJalen Johnson back · forecast ATL 71%
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTJalen Johnson out · forecast ATL 69%
Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTJalen Johnson back · forecast ATL 74%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints33
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints28
- Dyson DanielsAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–139
- Q44.5Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2132–139
- Q44.5Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2132–138
- Q44.5Alex Sarr personal take foul132–137
- Q47.9Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound132–137
- Q47.9Trae Young misses 27-foot three point jumper132–137
- Q49.5Tre Johnson enters the game for Deandre Ayton132–137
- Q49.5Trae Young enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly132–137
- Q49.5Wizards Full timeout132–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:46Kyshawn George makes 24-foot running jump shot (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 120 – 124 ATL · WSH 7% → 18% +11WSH 7% → 18%+11 pts
- Q43:10Trae Young makes free throw 3 of 3WSH 123 – 124 ATL · WSH 28% → 36% +7WSH 28% → 36%+7 pts
- Q42:57CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 123 – 125 ATL · ATL 65% → 72% +7ATL 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q42:36Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)WSH 123 – 129 ATL · ATL 80% → 93% +14ATL 80% → 93%+14 pts
- Q41:51Luguentz Dort makes 14-foot jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)WSH 125 – 131 ATL · ATL 88% → 96% +7ATL 88% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5
- ATL 69%
- Fair odds
- ATL -291
- WSH +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.1 – 118.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | −15 | WSH: Missing Anthony Davis (40% to sit) −31, Tristan Vukcevic −3, Justin Champagnie −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson (40% to sit) −15, Jock Landale −3 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +142 Elo | ATL 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 115.812th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 108.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.1 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 148321st of 30 |
| 29th of 301344 | Elo rating | 152514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−62 Elo- Asa Newell left great toe hyperextension−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–9 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Nov 4ATL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Feb 26WSH 96 @ ATL 126Picked ATL 80%Hit
- Feb 24WSH 98 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 83%Hit
- Dec 6ATL 131 @ WSH 116Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 113 @ WSH 132Picked ATL 81%Miss
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss