Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 50% to 44% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTJalen Johnson back · forecast WSH 39%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints26
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds16
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints26
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–105
- Q412.5CJ McCollum defensive rebound120–105
- Q412.5Will Riley misses 14-foot pullup jump shot120–105
- Q437.9CJ McCollum makes driving layup120–105
- Q457.8Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound118–105
- Q457.8Felix Okpara misses layup118–105
- Q41:17Bub Carrington defensive rebound118–105
- Q41:17Onyeka Okongwu misses 26-foot three point jumper118–105
- Q41:28Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound118–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:12Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)ATL 71 – 63 WSH · ATL 69% → 76% +8ATL 69% → 76%+8 pts
- Q34:21Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 83 – 74 WSH · ATL 74% → 81% +8ATL 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q32:55Trae Young makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Alex Sarr assists)ATL 83 – 79 WSH · WSH 23% → 32% +9WSH 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:20Corey Kispert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 86 – 79 WSH · ATL 68% → 77% +9ATL 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q410:09Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 98 – 87 WSH · ATL 84% → 91% +7ATL 84% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -142 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 115.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | +99 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson (40% to sit) −15, Jock Landale −3, Henri Veesaar −1 · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −2, Justin Champagnie −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +3 Elo | WSH 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 109.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 107.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 109.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 107.29th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.6 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 147526th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 135828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−42 Elo- Jock Landale left hip strain−5 Elo
Wizards
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–4 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Feb 26WSH 96 @ ATL 126Picked ATL 80%Hit
- Feb 24WSH 98 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 83%Hit
- Dec 6ATL 131 @ WSH 116Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 113 @ WSH 132Picked ATL 81%Miss
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Oct 28WSH 121 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 73%Miss