Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1460 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Heat are on a back-to-back.
- Likely out: Jalen Duren (DET).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Pistons
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Heat
Now 69%
72%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Fair odds
- DET -155
- MIA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DET 115.7 – 112.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | +28 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +108 Elo | DET 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.6 | Points allowed | 120.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+8.1 | Margin | −4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.019th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.2 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149419th of 30 |
| 7th of 301612 | Elo rating | 146021st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Offense, adjusted | +2.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.726th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA | 31 min | 25.2 | 27.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cade CunninghamDET | 33 min | 22.4 | 22.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bam AdebayoMIA | 33 min | 18.2 | 19.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Duncan RobinsonDET | 31 min | 15.9 | 20.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Klay ThompsonMIA | 26 min | 13.6 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Daniss JenkinsDET | 28 min | 13.1 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| John CollinsDET | 26 min | 13.0 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Paul ReedDET | 24 min | 13.0 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Davion MitchellMIA | 35 min | 12.8 | 16.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pelle LarssonMIA | 28 min | 10.8 | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin HuerterDET | 25 min | 10.5 | 12.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew WigginsMIA | 24 min | 9.7 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ausar ThompsonDET | 27 min | 9.1 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bobby PortisMIA | 18 min | 8.2 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Javonte GreenDET | 15 min | 5.7 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ronald Holland IIDET | 15 min | 5.7 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan ConwellMIA | 16 min | 5.0 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Keshad JohnsonMIA | 10 min | 4.7 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Pistons
−21 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 26.8 | Available |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 19.2 | Available |
| Daniss Jenkins | 28 | 19.4 | Available |
| Ausar Thompson | 27 | 20.2 | Available |
| John Collins | 26 | 19.0 | Available |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 17.8 | Available |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Ronald Holland II | 15 | 16.2 | Available |
| Elijah Harkless | 8 | 15.0 | Available |
| Jalen Duren | — | 26.6 | Out−32 |
| Isaiah Joe | — | 21.6 | Out−5 |
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 17.0 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Pistons
2 listedJalen Duren C
−32 EloOut24 min a game when healthy · 26.6 Game Score per 48
Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.
Isaiah Joe G
−5 EloOut11 min a game when healthy · 21.6 Game Score per 48
Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–7 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Oct 23DET 128 @ MIA 111Picked DET 53%Hit
- Mar 8DET 110 @ MIA 121Picked DET 51%Miss
- Jan 1MIA 118 @ DET 112Picked DET 62%Miss
- Nov 29DET 138 @ MIA 135Picked MIA 61%Miss
- Mar 19DET 116 @ MIA 113Picked DET 61%Hit
- Dec 16MIA 124 @ DET 125Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 12MIA 121 @ DET 123Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Oct 28DET 98 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 75%Hit