Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 78% to 79% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 9:04 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTAnthony Davis out · forecast DET 82%
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTAnthony Davis back · forecast DET 79%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints44
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Pistons- John CollinsPoints24
- Daniss JenkinsAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–122
- Q40.3Felix Okpara makes 10-foot jumper (Will Riley assists)111–122
- Q47.8shot clock turnover109–122
- Q421.9Felix Okpara personal foul109–122
- Q440.2Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot109–122
- Q449.1Felix Okpara defensive rebound106–122
- Q449.1Ronald Holland II misses 23-foot three point jumper106–122
- Q41:10Paul Reed defensive rebound106–122
- Q41:10Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point jumper106–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:14Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)WSH 7 – 7 DET · WSH 17% → 22% +4WSH 17% → 22%+4 pts
- Q19:03Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Ausar Thompson assists)WSH 7 – 10 DET · DET 78% → 83% +4DET 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q11:49Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ronald Holland II assists)WSH 25 – 29 DET · DET 78% → 83% +5DET 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q131.0Trae Young makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 32 – 31 DET · WSH 20% → 26% +5WSH 20% → 26%+5 pts
- Q35:23AJ Dybantsa makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Trae Young assists)WSH 76 – 84 DET · WSH 7% → 12% +4WSH 7% → 12%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML WSH +361 / DET -468
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 77.3%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -380
- WSH +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 104.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | −24 | WSH: Missing Anthony Davis (40% to sit) −30, Justin Champagnie −5, Tristan Vukcevic −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +213 Elo | DET 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 111.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 103.91st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.7 | Margin | +7.86th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 111.815th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 152110th of 30 |
| 29th of 301332 | Elo rating | 16077th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Mar 19DET 117 @ WSH 95Picked DET 89%Hit
- Mar 17DET 130 @ WSH 117Picked DET 92%Hit
- Feb 5WSH 126 @ DET 117Picked DET 89%Miss
- Nov 10WSH 135 @ DET 137Picked DET 81%Hit
- Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125Picked DET 85%Miss
- Mar 11WSH 103 @ DET 123Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 17DET 124 @ WSH 104Picked DET 64%Hit
- Mar 29DET 96 @ WSH 87Picked WSH 62%Miss