Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 63% to 71% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTLuka Doncic out · forecast DET 70%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints43
- Austin ReavesAssists4
- Walker KesslerRebounds16
Pistons- Daniss JenkinsPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–116
- Q40.8Pistons offensive team rebound121–116
- Q40.8Cade Cunningham misses heave jump shot121–116
- Q42.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2121–116
- Q42.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2120–116
- Q42.2Kevin Huerter personal foul119–116
- Q42.6Kevin Huerter makes driving layup119–116
- Q48.7Kevin Huerter defensive rebound119–114
- Q48.7Ziaire Williams misses free throw 2 of 2119–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:56Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)LAL 88 – 86 DET · DET 39% → 52% +13DET 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q47:20Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)LAL 94 – 92 DET · DET 32% → 48% +15DET 32% → 48%+15 pts
- Q44:23Ausar Thompson makes running layupLAL 97 – 96 DET · DET 36% → 50% +13DET 36% → 50%+13 pts
- Q44:07Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 100 – 96 DET · LAL 51% → 71% +20LAL 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q43:17Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)LAL 102 – 99 DET · DET 15% → 32% +18DET 15% → 32%+18 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML LAL +226 / DET -277
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 70.3%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -240
- LAL +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 104.0 – 112.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −87 | −24 | LAL: Missing Luka Doncic −103 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +150 Elo | DET 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.0 | Points scored | 111.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 101.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.7 | Margin | +9.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 111.116th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 101.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.3 | Pace | 100.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 150916th of 30 |
| 7th of 301603 | Elo rating | 16186th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.