Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 54% to 64% over 6 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTLuka Doncic out · forecast ATL 66%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints21
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–114
- Q417.0shot clock turnover124–114
- Q443.1Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound124–114
- Q443.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot124–114
- Q452.9Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)124–114
- Q41:12CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointer (Dyson Daniels assists)121–114
- Q41:22Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound121–111
- Q41:22Sandro Mamukelashvili misses driving floating jump shot121–111
- Q41:45Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound121–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:43Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)LAL 98 – 90 ATL · LAL 64% → 75% +11LAL 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q48:55Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)LAL 100 – 98 ATL · ATL 33% → 47% +14ATL 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q47:39Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kingston Flemings assists)LAL 106 – 103 ATL · ATL 26% → 40% +14ATL 26% → 40%+14 pts
- Q44:51Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)LAL 113 – 106 ATL · LAL 71% → 85% +14LAL 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q44:31CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)LAL 113 – 109 ATL · ATL 14% → 28% +14ATL 14% → 28%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hawks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -178
- LAL +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.1 – 118.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −82 | −12 | LAL: Missing Luka Doncic −105 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 118.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +3.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 109.812th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 208–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 20 |
| 5th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 145128th of 30 |
| 6th of 301615 | Elo rating | 153313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.