Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 74% to 74% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTJalen Johnson out · forecast ATL 72%
Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTJalen Johnson back · forecast ATL 74%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points25
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists13
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints30
- Dyson DanielsAssists7
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–124
- Q40.2Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound121–124
- Q40.2Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 2 of 2121–124
- Q40.2Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2121–124
- Q40.2Day'Ron Sharpe personal take foul121–123
- Q41.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Zuby Ejiofor121–123
- Q41.5Kingston Flemings enters the game for Dyson Daniels121–123
- Q41.5Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Luguentz Dort121–123
- Q41.5Hawks Full timeout121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:08Mikel Brown Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)BKN 106 – 101 ATL · BKN 54% → 72% +18BKN 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q44:06Mikel Brown Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 109 – 103 ATL · BKN 64% → 81% +18BKN 64% → 81%+18 pts
- Q42:13Mikel Brown Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 114 – 110 ATL · BKN 54% → 80% +26BKN 54% → 80%+26 pts
- Q41:44Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)BKN 114 – 113 ATL · ATL 16% → 44% +27ATL 16% → 44%+27 pts
- Q41:07Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes running layupBKN 114 – 117 ATL · ATL 67% → 87% +20ATL 67% → 87%+20 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 66%
- Fair odds
- ATL -281
- BKN +281 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.9 – 116.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | −15 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe (40% to sit) −8, Tyler Bilodeau −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson (40% to sit) −15, Jock Landale −3 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +114 Elo | ATL 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 118.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 114.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−6.3 | Margin | +3.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 113.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 109.913th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.4 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 146826th of 30 |
| 28th of 301351 | Elo rating | 152913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–7 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 3ATL 141 @ BKN 107Picked ATL 91%Hit
- Mar 12BKN 97 @ ATL 108Picked ATL 89%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 104 @ ATL 115Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 29ATL 117 @ BKN 112Picked ATL 73%Hit
- Apr 10ATL 133 @ BKN 109Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 16ATL 114 @ BKN 122Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Oct 23BKN 116 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Mar 2ATL 102 @ BKN 114Picked BKN 56%Hit