Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
- The pick
- MIN · Strong
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 110–123
- Fair odds
- -564
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 85%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1371 Elo), the Bulls are on a back-to-back and the Timberwolves have home court.
- Likely out: Anthony Edwards (MIN).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Bulls
Now 1%
2%
with a win
1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Timberwolves
Now 97%
98%
with a win
97%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12.5
- MIN 88%
- Fair odds
- MIN -564
- CHI +564 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHI 110.2 – 123.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −37 | −33 | CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +347 Elo | MIN 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.3 | Points allowed | 107.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.7 | Margin | +11.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 114.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.0 | Defense rating | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 30 |
| 25th of 301371 | Elo rating | 16385th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Offense, adjusted | +1.58th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−7.5 | Defense, adjusted | +3.07th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo BallMIN | 29 min | 21.7 | 22.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ayo DosunmuMIN | 32 min | 18.7 | 23.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaden McDanielsMIN | 34 min | 17.1 | 17.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Norman PowellCHI60% to play | 26 min | 16.8 | 19.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Caleb WilsonCHI | 27 min | 15.3 | 18.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonathan KumingaMIN | 29 min | 15.0 | 12.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matas BuzelisCHI | 25 min | 13.5 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh GiddeyCHI | 28 min | 12.2 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN | 20 min | 10.6 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jalen SmithCHI | 21 min | 10.1 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tre JonesCHI | 17 min | 9.2 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rudy GobertMIN | 28 min | 8.8 | 9.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nic ClaxtonCHI | 20 min | 7.9 | 10.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trey LylesMIN | 21 min | 7.5 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bones HylandMIN | 11 min | 6.9 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joan BeringerMIN | 14 min | 6.5 | 4.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaac OkoroCHI | 19 min | 6.2 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaylen ClarkMIN | 17 min | 5.9 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Leonard MillerCHI | 12 min | 5.6 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noa EssengueCHI | 12 min | 4.5 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Patrick WilliamsCHI | 14 min | 4.5 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Bulls
−37 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | 28 | 20.9 | Available |
| Caleb Wilson | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Matas Buzelis | 25 | 15.9 | Available |
| Jalen Smith | 21 | 20.7 | Available |
| Nic Claxton | 20 | 15.1 | Available |
| Isaac Okoro | 19 | 12.3 | Available |
| Tre Jones | 17 | 20.2 | Available |
| Norman Powell | 15 | 21.2 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Patrick Williams | 14 | 10.7 | Available |
| Noa Essengue | 12 | 14.8 | Available |
| Leonard Miller | 12 | 17.2 | Available |
| Jordan Hawkins | 9 | 11.8 | Available |
Timberwolves
−33 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 34 | 17.8 | Available |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 32 | 18.5 | Available |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 29 | 19.8 | Available |
| LaMelo Ball | 29 | 25.7 | Available |
| Rudy Gobert | 28 | 20.4 | Available |
| Trey Lyles | 21 | 16.5 | Available |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 20 | 16.0 | Available |
| Jaylen Clark | 17 | 16.0 | Available |
| Joan Beringer | 14 | 20.5 | Available |
| Bones Hyland | 11 | 18.7 | Available |
| Anthony Edwards | — | 26.1 | Out−40 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | — | 18.3 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Bulls
3 listedNorman Powell G
−9 EloDay-To-Day28 min a game when healthy · 21.2 Game Score per 48
Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.
Tobe Awaka F
Day-To-DayAwaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Zach Collins F
Day-To-DayCollins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Timberwolves
2 listedAnthony Edwards G
−40 EloOut34 min a game when healthy · 26.1 Game Score per 48
Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.
Donte DiVincenzo G
OutDiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.