Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 62% to 57% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 9:56 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints27
- Cameron BoozerAssists8
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Raptors- Jamal SheadPoints20
- Jamal SheadAssists11
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–102
- Q46.0shot clock turnover118–102
- Q429.4Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound118–102
- Q429.4Alijah Martin misses two point shot118–102
- Q448.1GG Jackson enters the game for Zach Edey118–102
- Q448.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Ty Jerome118–102
- Q448.1Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Cameron Boozer118–102
- Q448.1Kris Murray enters the game for Cedric Coward118–102
- Q448.1Javon Small enters the game for Jaylen Wells118–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:41Allen Graves makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)MEM 91 – 88 TOR · TOR 28% → 40% +12TOR 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q49:42Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Boozer assists)MEM 94 – 90 TOR · MEM 51% → 65% +14MEM 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q48:15Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Boozer assists)MEM 101 – 92 TOR · MEM 75% → 85% +10MEM 75% → 85%+10 pts
- Q47:40Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamison Battle assists)MEM 101 – 95 TOR · TOR 14% → 24% +10TOR 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q46:26Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 106 – 97 TOR · MEM 78% → 89% +10MEM 78% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -3.5
- ML MEM +126 / TOR -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.9%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- MEM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | −20 | MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −2, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −63, Scottie Barnes (40% to sit) −14, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +63 Elo | TOR 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 118.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.812th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +5.411th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 113.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 108.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 30th of 301431 | Opponent Elo | 148023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 153412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.