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Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Trail Blazers

6-3

78%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

22%

The pick
POR · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
119–109
Fair odds
-352

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Trail Blazers at 78%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Trail Blazers rate higher (1506 to 1352 Elo), the Kings have home court and lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers.
  • Likely out: Ja Morant (POR).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Trail Blazers

Now 58%

59%

with a win

53%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

How the forecast moved

SAC went from 21% to 23% over 2 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (SAC win chance) Betting line, margin removed
15%22%30%Mon 10 PMTue 11 AMWed 12 AM

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Trail Blazers 78%

Strong
POR 78%SAC 22%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
POR 78%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
POR -5.5
POR 70%
Fair odds
POR -352
SAC +352 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
POR 118.9 – 109.3 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPORSACWhy
Team rating15061352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+46+14POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPOR +149 EloPOR 70.3%
Market-implied ratingsPOR 78.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPOR 77.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
PORStatSAC
3rd of 30119.3Points scored108.324th of 30
16th of 30113.8Points allowed121.027th of 30
11th of 30+5.6Margin−12.728th of 30
6th of 30116.4Offense rating106.024th of 30
14th of 30111.0Defense rating118.428th of 30
6th of 30102.4Pace102.27th of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home0–627th of 30
16th of 301505Opponent Elo151612th of 30
15th of 301506Elo rating135227th of 30
10th of 30+1.1Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
10th of 30+0.9Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Darius Acuff Jr.SAC23.1—— No line
Deni AvdijaPOR22.0—— No line
Damian LillardPOR18.4—— No line
Zach LaVineSAC17.7—— No line
De'Andre HunterSAC14.1—— No line
Domantas SabonisSAC13.7—— No line
Jrue HolidayPOR13.3—— No line
Scoot HendersonPOR11.4—— No line
Donovan ClinganPOR11.4—— No line
Toumani CamaraPOR11.3—— No line
Precious AchiuwaSAC9.5—— No line
Keegan MurraySAC8.9—— No line
Robert Williams IIIPOR6.9—— No line
Malik MonkSAC5.5—— No line
Dylan CardwellSAC5.2—— No line
Chris YoungbloodPOR5.2—— No line
Sidy CissokoPOR5.1—— No line
Leaky BlackSAC4.4—— No line
Emanuel SharpSAC4.4—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Trail Blazers

+46 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Deni Avdija3222.9Available
Damian Lillard2825.4Available
Toumani Camara2714.9Available
Jrue Holiday2620.6Available
Donovan Clingan2521.7Available
Scoot Henderson2314.7Available
Sidy Cissoko1912.7Available
Robert Williams III1622.8Available
Chris Youngblood1217.1Available
Yang Hansen913.2Available
Branden Carlson718.8Available
Micah Potter715.8Available

Kings

+14 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3417.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3016.6Available
Domantas Sabonis2923.4Available
Zach LaVine2817.6Available
Keegan Murray2314.6Available
Precious Achiuwa2215.7Available
Dylan Cardwell1916.7Available
Leaky Black1812.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1615.4Available
Malik Monk1017.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden512.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Trail BlazersKings
130013501400145015001550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Trail Blazers

3 listed

  • Ja Morant G

    −28 EloOut

    27 min a game when healthy · 24.5 Game Score per 48

    Head coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.

  • Vit Krejci G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Shaedon Sharpe G

    Out

    Sharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Kings

2 listed

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPORSAC
Against the spread5–34–5
Last 105–34–5
Favorite3–1—
Underdog2–24–5
Overs–unders4–44–5
Overs–unders, last 104–44–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

POR 8–4 SAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.