Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SAC went from 37% to 32% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTDesmond Bane back · forecast SAC 36%
Sun, Nov 8, 8:54 PM ESTDomantas Sabonis out · forecast SAC 30%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTDomantas Sabonis back · forecast SAC 34%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints33
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints31
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists6
- Dylan CardwellRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–100
- Q40.5Zach LaVine makes driving layup107–100
- Q46.4Wendell Carter Jr. makes 6-foot running dunk (Desmond Bane assists)107–98
- Q413.1Desmond Bane defensive rebound105–98
- Q413.1Darius Acuff Jr. misses driving layup105–98
- Q420.6Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2105–98
- Q420.6Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2104–98
- Q420.6Zach LaVine personal take foul103–98
- Q420.6Franz Wagner offensive rebound103–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:08Alex Morales makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Cain assists)ORL 40 – 40 SAC · ORL 57% → 64% +7ORL 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q38:12Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 66 – 59 SAC · ORL 73% → 80% +7ORL 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q36:28Zach LaVine makes 23-foot running jump shot (Keegan Murray assists)ORL 68 – 65 SAC · SAC 22% → 30% +8SAC 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q34:48Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 71 – 65 SAC · ORL 70% → 79% +8ORL 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q31:01Darius Acuff Jr. makes 25-foot fade away jump shotORL 82 – 76 SAC · SAC 13% → 20% +7SAC 13% → 20%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ORL -237 / SAC +196
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 52.5%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -208
- SAC +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 113.5 – 108.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +7 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Missing Domantas Sabonis (40% to sit) −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +17 Elo | ORL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 109.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 122.429th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −13.328th of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 106.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 119.428th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 0–527th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 30 |
| 19th of 301469 | Elo rating | 135927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–2 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.