Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 63% to 65% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints30
- Franz WagnerAssists11
- Jamal CainRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints41
- Draymond GreenAssists13
- Yaxel LendeborgRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–126
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–126
- OT1.0Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound119–126
- OT1.0Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shot119–126
- OT4.7Franz Wagner offensive rebound119–126
- OT4.7Tristan da Silva misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot119–126
- OT8.6Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
- OT8.6Goga Bitadze enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.119–125
- OT8.6Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 1 of 2119–125
- OT8.6Wendell Carter Jr. personal take foul119–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:01Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)ORL 103 – 106 GS · GS 52% → 87% +35GS 52% → 87%+35 pts
- Q450.8Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 106 – 106 GS · ORL 11% → 48% +37ORL 11% → 48%+37 pts
- Q434.6Franz Wagner makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 108 – 108 GS · ORL 16% → 48% +32ORL 16% → 48%+32 pts
- Q425.2Stephen Curry makes driving layupORL 108 – 110 GS · GS 51% → 88% +36GS 51% → 88%+36 pts
- Q41.5Jamal Cain makes tip shotORL 110 – 110 GS · ORL <1% → 50% +50ORL <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Warriors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5
- GS 69%
- Fair odds
- GS -189
- ORL +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.1 – 115.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +7 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −31, Jalen Suggs −2, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39, Kristaps Porzingis −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +142 Elo | GS 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 117.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +4.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 116.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Opponent Elo | 15249th of 30 |
| 18th of 301472 | Elo rating | 153611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–5 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.