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Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Grizzlies

7-3

52%

at

Home

Pelicans

4-7

48%

The pick
MEM · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–117
Fair odds
-108

Your pick

Smoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, DAZN MEM

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Grizzlies at 52%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Grizzlies, the Pelicans have home court and the Grizzlies rate higher (1443 to 1421 Elo).
  • It's moved toward the Pelicans since we first logged it, from 39% to 48%.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Grizzlies

Now 8%

9%

with a win

6%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Pelicans

Now 2%

3%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

NO went from 39% to 48% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (NO win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
30%43%55%Mon 10 PMTue 11 AMWed 12 AM

Tue, Nov 10, 12:44 AM ESTZion Williamson back, Trey Murphy III back · forecast NO 45%

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Grizzlies 52%

Toss-up
MEM 52%NO 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MEM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MEM -1.5
MEM 55%
Fair odds
MEM -108
NO +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MEM 117.9 – 117.3 NO
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMEMNOWhy
Team rating14431421Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+65+16MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMEM +36 EloMEM 55.1%
Market-implied ratingsMEM 51.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMEM 52.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans compared, with each team's league rank
MEMStatNO
7th of 30117.9Points scored117.58th of 30
11th of 30110.8Points allowed122.429th of 30
10th of 30+7.1Margin−4.920th of 30
7th of 30114.9Offense rating111.217th of 30
9th of 30108.0Defense rating115.826th of 30
15th of 30101.4Pace102.75th of 30
1st of 305–0Road vs home3–314th of 30
30th of 301437Opponent Elo146128th of 30
22nd of 301443Elo rating142123rd of 30
15th of 30+0.6Offense, adjusted+1.39th of 30
22nd of 30−2.0Defense, adjusted−4.729th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Ty JeromeMEM21.8—— No line
Zion WilliamsonNO19.7—— No line
Trey Murphy IIINO60% to play16.9—— No line
Jeremiah FearsNO16.5—— No line
Cameron BoozerMEM14.5—— No line
Dejounte MurrayNO14.5—— No line
Saddiq BeyNO14.3—— No line
Cedric CowardMEM13.1—— No line
Jerami GrantMEM11.6—— No line
Jaylen WellsMEM11.2—— No line
Javon SmallMEM9.9—— No line
Derik QueenNO9.7—— No line
Zach EdeyMEM8.7—— No line
Cam SpencerMEM8.1—— No line
Bennedict MathurinNO7.7—— No line
Isaiah StewartMEM60% to play7.4—— No line
Karlo MatkovicNO7.3—— No line
GG JacksonMEM6.8—— No line
Jordan PooleNO6.5—— No line
Herbert JonesNO6.3—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.9Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

GrizzliesPelicans
130013501400145015001550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    −3 EloOut

    17 min a game when healthy · 18.2 Game Score per 48

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Richie Saunders G

    −1 EloOut

    7 min a game when healthy · 17.9 Game Score per 48

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trey Murphy III F

    −7 EloDay-To-Day

    32 min a game when healthy · 19.7 Game Score per 48

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMEMNO
Against the spread5–36–3
Last 105–36–3
Favorite3–21–1
Underdog2–15–2
Overs–unders2–65–4
Overs–unders, last 102–65–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MEM 8–5 NO in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.