New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 70% to 74% over 6 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints16
- Jeremiah FearsAssists8
- Herbert JonesRebounds6
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Al HorfordAssists6
- Charles BasseyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–138
- Q416.3Gui Santos defensive rebound87–138
- Q416.3Julian Reese misses 10-foot two point shot87–138
- Q438.3Graham Ike out of bounds bad pass turnover87–138
- Q444.4Graham Ike offensive rebound87–138
- Q444.4Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot87–138
- Q457.7Malevy Leons defensive rebound87–138
- Q457.7Bryce McGowens misses 27-foot three point jumper87–138
- Q41:06AJ Johnson offensive rebound87–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Brandin Podziemski makes 5-foot two point shot (Draymond Green assists)NO 0 – 2 GS · GS 74% → 78% +3GS 74% → 78%+3 pts
- Q111:02Jeremiah Fears makes 26-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 3 – 2 GS · NO 23% → 28% +5NO 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q110:49Yaxel Lendeborg makes 26-foot three pointerNO 3 – 5 GS · GS 72% → 77% +5GS 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q110:12Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)NO 3 – 8 GS · GS 77% → 82% +5GS 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q17:50Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)NO 9 – 14 GS · GS 77% → 82% +5GS 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Warriors 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 72%
- Fair odds
- GS -290
- NO +290 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.4 – 121.5 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +30 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40, Kristaps Porzingis −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +164 Elo | GS 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.5 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 113.615th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +5.011th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 116.16th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.118th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301456 | Opponent Elo | 15257th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301431 | Elo rating | 154011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–7 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.