New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 50% to 46% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTTrey Murphy III back · forecast LAC 49%
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTIsaiah Jackson out · forecast LAC 48%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints26
- Jeremiah FearsAssists5
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds7
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Brook LopezRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–139
- Q410.4Bennedict Mathurin makes driving dunk123–139
- Q414.4Jalen Pickett lost ball turnover (Bennedict Mathurin steals)121–139
- Q436.6Baba Miller defensive rebound121–139
- Q436.6Bennedict Mathurin misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot121–139
- Q447.7Baba Miller makes free throw 2 of 2121–139
- Q447.7Baba Miller makes free throw 1 of 2121–138
- Q447.7Julian Reese personal foul121–137
- Q457.3Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup121–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:20Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 86 – 82 LAC · NO 56% → 66% +10NO 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q33:03Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 91 – 89 LAC · NO 49% → 60% +11NO 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q32:23Kobe Sanders makes 27-foot three point jumper (Baba Miller assists)NO 93 – 94 LAC · LAC 40% → 52% +11LAC 40% → 52%+11 pts
- Q31:38Kobe Sanders makes 28-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wagler assists)NO 93 – 99 LAC · LAC 59% → 70% +11LAC 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q350.3Gradey Dick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kobe Sanders assists)NO 95 – 102 LAC · LAC 64% → 74% +11LAC 64% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML NO -129 / LAC +109
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NO: Elo 56.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -118
- LAC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.5 – 112.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −86 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −18, Isaiah Jackson −8, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NO +42 Elo | NO 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.2 | Points scored | 109.124th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 115.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −6.522nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 106.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–322nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Opponent Elo | 15541st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301448 | Elo rating | 149116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 6–5 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 19LAC 99 @ NO 105Picked NO 60%Hit
- Mar 18LAC 109 @ NO 124Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Mar 1NO 117 @ LAC 137Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Oct 31NO 124 @ LAC 126Picked LAC 82%Hit
- Apr 2NO 98 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 91%Hit
- Mar 11LAC 120 @ NO 127Picked LAC 72%Miss
- Dec 30LAC 116 @ NO 113Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Mar 15LAC 104 @ NO 112Picked NO 67%Hit