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Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast

Away

Nuggets

5-4

59%

at

Home

Grizzlies

7-3

41%

The pick
DEN · Lean
Line
DEN -4.5
Projected
116–112
Fair odds
-143

Your pick

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The short version

  • The betting line has the Nuggets favored by 4.5, and the forecast follows it (Nuggets 59%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings like the Nuggets less, at 52%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1443 Elo), lineup changes favor the Grizzlies and the Grizzlies have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Nuggets

Now 82%

83%

with a win

80%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Grizzlies

Now 8%

9%

with a win

6%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

MEM went from 40% to 41% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (MEM win chance) Betting line, margin removed
35%45%55%Sat 9 PMMon 11 AMWed 12 AM

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Nuggets 59%

Lean
DEN 59%MEM 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
DEN -4.5
ML DEN -158 / MEM +133
Pre-line forecast
DEN 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DEN -0.5
DEN 52%
Ratings vs. market
−6.5 pts
DEN: Elo 52.3%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
DEN -143
MEM +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
DEN 59%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Projected score
DEN 116.0 – 111.5 MEM
Posted spread, posted total 227.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENMEMWhy
Team rating15421443Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+19+65DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDEN +16 EloDEN 52.3%
Market-implied ratingsDEN 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDEN 56.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDEN 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatMEM
15th of 30113.6Points scored117.97th of 30
13th of 30112.8Points allowed110.811th of 30
17th of 30+0.8Margin+7.110th of 30
9th of 30114.1Offense rating114.97th of 30
23rd of 30113.3Defense rating108.09th of 30
27th of 3098.2Pace101.415th of 30
13th of 302–2Road vs home2–320th of 30
14th of 301508Opponent Elo143730th of 30
11th of 301542Elo rating144322nd of 30
7th of 30+1.9Offense, adjusted+0.615th of 30
15th of 300.0Defense, adjusted−2.022nd of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Nikola JokicDEN22.8—— No line
Jamal MurrayDEN22.6—— No line
Ty JeromeMEM20.9—— No line
Cameron BoozerMEM13.9—— No line
Cedric CowardMEM12.6—— No line
Aaron GordonDEN12.1—— No line
DeMar DeRozanDEN11.5—— No line
Cameron JohnsonDEN11.3—— No line
Jerami GrantMEM11.2—— No line
Christian BraunDEN10.9—— No line
Jaylen WellsMEM10.7—— No line
Javon SmallMEM9.5—— No line
Zach EdeyMEM8.3—— No line
Cam SpencerMEM7.7—— No line
Isaiah StewartMEM60% to play7.1—— No line
GG JacksonMEM6.5—— No line
Marvin Bagley IIIDEN6.1—— No line
Trevon BrazileDEN5.5—— No line
Spencer JonesDEN4.8—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jamal Murray3326.6Available
Nikola Jokic3336.5Available
Christian Braun2919.1Available
Cameron Johnson2718.9Available
Aaron Gordon2622.3Available
DeMar DeRozan2019.3Available
Spencer Jones1912.9Available
Trevon Brazile1618.0Available
Marvin Bagley III1219.3Available
Tyus Jones814.4Available
Bryce Hopkins616.9Available
Ryan Nembhard416.2Available

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsGrizzlies
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Nuggets

1 listed

  • Julian Strawther G

    Out

    Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    −3 EloOut

    17 min a game when healthy · 18.2 Game Score per 48

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Richie Saunders G

    −1 EloOut

    7 min a game when healthy · 17.9 Game Score per 48

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDENMEM
Against the spread3–55–3
Last 103–55–3
Favorite3–33–2
Underdog0–22–1
Overs–unders4–42–6
Overs–unders, last 104–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DEN 9–2 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.