Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Lakers favored by 11.5, and the forecast follows it (Lakers 82%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Lakers more, at 87%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1360 Elo), lineup changes favor the Lakers and the Bucks are on a back-to-back.
- Likely out: Tyler Herro (MIL).
- It's moved toward the Lakers since we first logged it, from 77% to 82%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Lakers
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
99%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Bucks
Now <1%
0%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
MIL went from 23% to 18% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 11 at 12:29 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTLuka Doncic out · forecast MIL 30%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTLuka Doncic back · forecast MIL 15%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTTyler Herro out · forecast MIL 13%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -11.5
- ML LAL -578 / MIL +431
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -12
- LAL 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 87.3%, market 81.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -453
- MIL +453 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LAL 122.0 – 110.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | −38 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +335 Elo | LAL 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 87.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 87.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 81.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.1 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −14.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 105.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 278–2 | Last 10 | 1–925th of 27 |
| 3rd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15325th of 30 |
| 6th of 301625 | Elo rating | 136026th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.1 | Offense, adjusted | −3.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.725th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka DoncicLAL | 34 min | 32.5 | 42.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Austin ReavesLAL | 33 min | 21.0 | 27.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL | 27 min | 15.6 | 14.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle KuzmaMIL | 28 min | 13.6 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan RollinsMIL | 23 min | 12.6 | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden BurriesMIL | 26 min | 12.1 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin SextonLAL | 19 min | 11.7 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Walker KesslerLAL | 28 min | 11.7 | 15.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Myles TurnerMIL | 28 min | 10.6 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sandro MamukelashviliLAL | 22 min | 9.9 | 10.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ziaire WilliamsLAL | 21 min | 9.9 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nate AmentMIL | 19 min | 9.2 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Quentin GrimesLAL60% to play | 24 min | 8.9 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kel'el WareMIL | 17 min | 8.5 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| AJ GreenMIL | 19 min | 7.5 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kasparas JakucionisMIL | 18 min | 6.6 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matisse ThybulleLAL | 22 min | 6.4 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake LaRaviaLAL | 24 min | 6.4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ousmane DiengMIL | 13 min | 5.3 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jericho SimsMIL | 10 min | 2.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Lakers
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 34 | 34.0 | Available |
| Austin Reaves | 33 | 23.1 | Available |
| Walker Kessler | 28 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jake LaRavia | 24 | 14.9 | Available |
| Matisse Thybulle | 22 | 15.0 | Available |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 22 | 21.8 | Available |
| Ziaire Williams | 21 | 13.5 | Available |
| Collin Sexton | 19 | 19.7 | Available |
| Quentin Grimes | 14 | 15.7 | Day-To-Day |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 6 | 15.1 | Available |
| Adou Thiero | 4 | 16.0 | Available |
Bucks
−38 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | 28 | 13.9 | Available |
| Myles Turner | 28 | 16.7 | Available |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Brayden Burries | 26 | 16.1 | Available |
| Ryan Rollins | 23 | 18.0 | Available |
| AJ Green | 19 | 12.2 | Available |
| Nate Ament | 19 | 16.0 | Available |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 18 | 15.5 | Available |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 20.0 | Available |
| Ousmane Dieng | 13 | 12.5 | Available |
| Jericho Sims | 10 | 12.9 | Available |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 5 | 12.5 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Lakers
1 listedQuentin Grimes G
Day-To-DayGrimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.
Bucks
1 listedTyler Herro G
−32 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 21.5 Game Score per 48
Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.