Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Magic at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Magic rate higher (1476 to 1309 Elo) and the Jazz have home court.
- Likely out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTAH), Lauri Markkanen (UTAH), Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTAH), Paolo Banchero (ORL) and 1 more.
- It's moved toward the Magic since we first logged it, from 58% to 67%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Magic
Now 45%
46%
with a win
42%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Jazz
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
UTAH went from 42% to 33% over 8 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTDesmond Bane back · forecast UTAH 41%
Sun, Nov 8, 7:49 PM ESTJusuf Nurkic out, Lauri Markkanen out · forecast UTAH 38%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTKeyonte George out, Lauri Markkanen back · forecast UTAH 39%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTLauri Markkanen out · forecast UTAH 34%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 67%
- Fair odds
- ORL -207
- UTAH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- ORL 115.7 – 110.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1309 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | −31 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +123 Elo | ORL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 106.528th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 117.623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−7.6 | Margin | −11.226th of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 102.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
| 7th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15246th of 30 |
| 19th of 301476 | Elo rating | 130930th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.3 | Offense, adjusted | −2.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Defense, adjusted | −4.027th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz WagnerORL | 38 min | 25.7 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Desmond BaneORL | 37 min | 21.3 | 19.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Darryn PetersonUTAH | 32 min | 18.1 | 18.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ace BaileyUTAH | 34 min | 18.1 | 12.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony BlackORL | 33 min | 16.4 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Wendell Carter Jr.ORL | 35 min | 14.7 | 13.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brice SensabaughUTAH | 17 min | 11.4 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaxson HayesUTAH | 25 min | 10.5 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah CollierUTAH | 19 min | 10.0 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamal CainORL | 24 min | 9.7 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jase RichardsonORL | 23 min | 8.0 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Svi MykhailiukUTAH | 17 min | 7.1 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle FilipowskiUTAH | 12 min | 7.0 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh GreenUTAH | 24 min | 6.2 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikola VucevicORL | 12 min | 5.9 | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mo BambaUTAH | 15 min | 5.8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh OkogieUTAH | 22 min | 5.6 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Goga BitadzeORL | 10 min | 3.9 | 2.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex MoralesORL | 15 min | 3.4 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Magic
−28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 38 | 23.5 | Available |
| Desmond Bane | 37 | 20.4 | Available |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 35 | 17.2 | Available |
| Anthony Black | 33 | 16.1 | Available |
| Jamal Cain | 24 | 13.5 | Available |
| Jase Richardson | 23 | 14.8 | Available |
| Alex Morales | 15 | 16.7 | Available |
| Nikola Vucevic | 12 | 20.5 | Available |
| Goga Bitadze | 10 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jevon Carter | 9 | 14.2 | Available |
| Colin Castleton | 4 | 15.4 | Available |
| Paolo Banchero | — | 22.6 | Out−33 |
Jazz
−31 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 34 | 13.1 | Available |
| Darryn Peterson | 32 | 16.5 | Available |
| Jaxson Hayes | 25 | 18.3 | Available |
| Josh Green | 24 | 12.4 | Available |
| Josh Okogie | 22 | 13.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Collier | 19 | 13.7 | Available |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 17 | 13.9 | Available |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 17 | 15.1 | Available |
| Mo Bamba | 15 | 15.9 | Available |
| Kyle Filipowski | 12 | 16.7 | Available |
| Tony Bradley | 9 | 16.2 | Available |
| Harrison Ingram | 6 | 18.3 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Magic
6 listedPaolo Banchero F
−33 EloOut36 min a game when healthy · 22.6 Game Score per 48
Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Jalen Suggs G
−4 EloOut34 min a game when healthy · 18.1 Game Score per 48
Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.
Izaiyah Nelson F
−1 EloOut7 min a game when healthy · 17.9 Game Score per 48
Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.
Tristan da Silva F
OutDa Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Jonathan Isaac F
OutIsaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.
Noah Penda F
OutPenda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Jazz
4 listedLauri Markkanen F
−39 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 22.0 Game Score per 48
Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.
Jaren Jackson Jr. F
−27 EloOut25 min a game when healthy · 21.0 Game Score per 48
Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Keyonte George G
−10 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 17.1 Game Score per 48
George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.
Jusuf Nurkic C
−10 EloOut16 min a game when healthy · 18.4 Game Score per 48
Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 1–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–2 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.