Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Magic at 74%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Magic rate higher (1476 to 1360 Elo) and the Magic have home court.
- Likely out: Tyler Herro (MIL) and Paolo Banchero (ORL).
- It's moved toward the Magic since we first logged it, from 69% to 74%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Bucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Magic
Now 45%
46%
with a win
41%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
ORL went from 69% to 74% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTTyler Herro out · forecast ORL 74%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 70%
- Fair odds
- ORL -289
- MIL +289 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIL 107.9 – 116.0 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1360 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −28 | MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and ORL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +151 Elo | ORL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 107.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 114.618th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.9 | Margin | −7.624th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 105.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 113.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.225th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 0–427th of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Opponent Elo | 15237th of 30 |
| 26th of 301360 | Elo rating | 147619th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.8 | Offense, adjusted | −2.326th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−3.7 | Defense, adjusted | +0.414th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz WagnerORL | 38 min | 25.8 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Desmond BaneORL | 37 min | 21.3 | 19.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony BlackORL | 33 min | 16.4 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL | 27 min | 15.3 | 14.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Wendell Carter Jr.ORL | 35 min | 14.7 | 13.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle KuzmaMIL | 28 min | 13.3 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan RollinsMIL | 23 min | 12.4 | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden BurriesMIL | 26 min | 11.9 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Myles TurnerMIL | 28 min | 10.4 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamal CainORL | 24 min | 9.7 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nate AmentMIL | 19 min | 9.1 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kel'el WareMIL | 17 min | 8.3 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jase RichardsonORL | 23 min | 8.0 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| AJ GreenMIL | 19 min | 7.4 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kasparas JakucionisMIL | 18 min | 6.5 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikola VucevicORL | 12 min | 5.9 | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ousmane DiengMIL | 13 min | 5.3 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Goga BitadzeORL | 10 min | 4.0 | 2.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex MoralesORL | 15 min | 3.4 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jericho SimsMIL | 10 min | 2.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Bucks
−38 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | 28 | 13.9 | Available |
| Myles Turner | 28 | 16.7 | Available |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Brayden Burries | 26 | 16.1 | Available |
| Ryan Rollins | 23 | 18.0 | Available |
| AJ Green | 19 | 12.2 | Available |
| Nate Ament | 19 | 16.0 | Available |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 18 | 15.5 | Available |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 20.0 | Available |
| Ousmane Dieng | 13 | 12.5 | Available |
| Jericho Sims | 10 | 12.9 | Available |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 5 | 12.5 | Available |
Magic
−28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 38 | 23.5 | Available |
| Desmond Bane | 37 | 20.4 | Available |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 35 | 17.2 | Available |
| Anthony Black | 33 | 16.1 | Available |
| Jamal Cain | 24 | 13.5 | Available |
| Jase Richardson | 23 | 14.8 | Available |
| Alex Morales | 15 | 16.7 | Available |
| Nikola Vucevic | 12 | 20.5 | Available |
| Goga Bitadze | 10 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jevon Carter | 9 | 14.2 | Available |
| Colin Castleton | 4 | 15.4 | Available |
| Paolo Banchero | — | 22.6 | Out−33 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Bucks
1 listedTyler Herro G
−32 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 21.5 Game Score per 48
Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.
Magic
6 listedPaolo Banchero F
−33 EloOut36 min a game when healthy · 22.6 Game Score per 48
Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Jalen Suggs G
−4 EloOut34 min a game when healthy · 18.1 Game Score per 48
Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.
Izaiyah Nelson F
−1 EloOut7 min a game when healthy · 17.9 Game Score per 48
Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.
Tristan da Silva F
OutDa Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Jonathan Isaac F
OutIsaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.
Noah Penda F
OutPenda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–5 ORL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 8ORL 130 @ MIL 91Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Feb 11MIL 116 @ ORL 108Picked ORL 80%Miss
- Feb 9MIL 99 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 111 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 71%Miss
- Jan 15ORL 93 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Jan 10MIL 109 @ ORL 106Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 10ORL 109 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 75%Hit
- Apr 14MIL 88 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 66%Hit