LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 63% to 62% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 12:32 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTIsaiah Jackson back · forecast PHX 60%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints13
- Kobe SandersAssists7
- Darius GarlandRebounds5
Suns- Jordan GoodwinPoints18
- Collin GillespieAssists8
- Ryan DunnRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–133
- Q420.2shot clock turnover108–133
- Q438.8Baba Miller makes free throw 2 of 2108–133
- Q438.8Baba Miller makes free throw 1 of 2107–133
- Q438.8Koa Peat personal foul106–133
- Q446.2Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 2 of 2106–133
- Q446.2Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 1 of 2106–132
- Q446.2Kobe Sanders shooting foul106–131
- Q452.5Gradey Dick makes 1-foot running dunk (Kobe Sanders assists)106–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:18Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumperLAC 10 – 8 PHX · LAC 37% → 43% +6LAC 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q14:30Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 15 – 12 PHX · LAC 39% → 46% +7LAC 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q13:20Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 18 – 16 PHX · LAC 37% → 44% +7LAC 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q13:01Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAC 18 – 19 PHX · PHX 56% → 63% +7PHX 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q11:42Collin Gillespie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Khaman Maluach assists)LAC 18 – 24 PHX · PHX 67% → 73% +6PHX 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML LAC +151 / PHX -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 54.3%, market 61.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -161
- LAC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.0 – 115.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | −11 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −15, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −4, Jordan Miller −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −15 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +30 Elo | PHX 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 61.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 119.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−4.0 | Margin | −8.423rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 110.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 118.627th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Opponent Elo | 15631st of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 147518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–7 PHX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Feb 1LAC 117 @ PHX 93Picked PHX 57%Miss
- Nov 8PHX 114 @ LAC 103Picked LAC 63%Miss
- Nov 6LAC 102 @ PHX 115Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Oct 24PHX 102 @ LAC 129Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Mar 4LAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked LAC 57%Miss
- Jan 27LAC 109 @ PHX 111Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Oct 31PHX 125 @ LAC 119Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 23PHX 116 @ LAC 113Picked PHX 64%Hit