San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 31% to 25% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:48 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints40
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Khaman MaluachRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–96
- Q45.8shot clock turnover122–96
- Q432.0Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound122–96
- Q432.0Rasheer Fleming misses 26-foot three point jumper122–96
- Q451.0Tarris Reed Jr. makes dunk (Jordan McLaughlin assists)122–96
- Q41:07Koa Peat makes driving layup (Jamaree Bouyea assists)120–96
- Q41:13David Jones Garcia out of bounds lost ball turnover120–94
- Q41:32Duop Reath makes layup (Pat Spencer assists)120–94
- Q41:45Tarris Reed Jr. makes two point shot120–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:34Devin Booker makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Green assists)SA 9 – 7 PHX · PHX 18% → 23% +5PHX 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q14:21Ryan Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khaman Maluach assists)SA 20 – 17 PHX · PHX 17% → 22% +5PHX 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q12:12Khaman Maluach makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SA 22 – 22 PHX · PHX 22% → 28% +6PHX 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q11:41Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerSA 24 – 25 PHX · PHX 24% → 30% +6PHX 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q149.8Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 29 – 25 PHX · SA 74% → 80% +5SA 74% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML SA -352 / PHX +282
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- SA: Elo 67.9%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -297
- PHX +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.5 – 110.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1659 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −4 | SA: Usual rotation · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +130 Elo | SA 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 112.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 118.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.3 | Margin | −6.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15481st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301659 | Elo rating | 148617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | — | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 6–5 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 19PHX 100 @ SA 101Picked SA 79%Hit
- Feb 19PHX 94 @ SA 121Picked SA 71%Hit
- Nov 23SA 102 @ PHX 111Picked PHX 52%Hit
- Nov 2SA 118 @ PHX 130Picked SA 67%Miss
- Apr 11SA 98 @ PHX 117Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Feb 20PHX 109 @ SA 120Picked PHX 57%Miss
- Dec 3SA 93 @ PHX 104Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Mar 25PHX 102 @ SA 104Picked PHX 74%Miss