Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 77%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Wizards are on a back-to-back.
- Likely out: Jalen Duren (DET).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Pistons
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Wizards
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 22% to 23% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 76%
- Fair odds
- DET -338
- WSH +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DET 116.1 – 106.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | +70 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +199 Elo | DET 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 108.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.6 | Points allowed | 113.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+8.1 | Margin | −5.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 106.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150715th of 30 |
| 7th of 301612 | Elo rating | 132629th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Offense, adjusted | −2.024th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.124th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade CunninghamDET | 33 min | 22.4 | 22.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony DavisWSH | 31 min | 19.6 | 28.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trae YoungWSH | 32 min | 18.0 | 16.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Duncan RobinsonDET | 31 min | 15.9 | 20.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyshawn GeorgeWSH | 32 min | 14.6 | 21.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Daniss JenkinsDET | 28 min | 13.1 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| John CollinsDET | 26 min | 13.1 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Paul ReedDET | 24 min | 13.0 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| AJ DybantsaWSH | 28 min | 12.8 | 16.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex SarrWSH | 24 min | 11.0 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin HuerterDET | 25 min | 10.5 | 12.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ausar ThompsonDET | 27 min | 9.2 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tre JohnsonWSH | 22 min | 8.9 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bilal CoulibalyWSH | 23 min | 8.5 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bub CarringtonWSH | 18 min | 6.5 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Javonte GreenDET | 15 min | 5.7 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ronald Holland IIDET | 15 min | 5.7 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Deandre AytonWSH | 14 min | 4.9 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Pistons
−21 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 26.8 | Available |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 19.2 | Available |
| Daniss Jenkins | 28 | 19.4 | Available |
| Ausar Thompson | 27 | 20.2 | Available |
| John Collins | 26 | 19.0 | Available |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 17.8 | Available |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Ronald Holland II | 15 | 16.2 | Available |
| Elijah Harkless | 8 | 15.0 | Available |
| Jalen Duren | — | 26.6 | Out−32 |
| Isaiah Joe | — | 21.6 | Out−5 |
Wizards
+70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 32 | 23.3 | Available |
| Kyshawn George | 32 | 13.3 | Available |
| Anthony Davis | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| AJ Dybantsa | 28 | 17.2 | Available |
| Alex Sarr | 24 | 15.5 | Available |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 23 | 10.8 | Available |
| Tre Johnson | 22 | 11.8 | Available |
| Bub Carrington | 18 | 9.3 | Available |
| Deandre Ayton | 14 | 18.5 | Available |
| Will Riley | 7 | 12.2 | Available |
| Jamir Watkins | — | 14.4 | Out |
| Justin Champagnie | — | 16.8 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Pistons
2 listedJalen Duren C
−32 EloOut24 min a game when healthy · 26.6 Game Score per 48
Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.
Isaiah Joe G
−5 EloOut11 min a game when healthy · 21.6 Game Score per 48
Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.
Wizards
4 listedTristan Vukcevic F
−1 EloOut14 min a game when healthy · 17.3 Game Score per 48
Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.
Reece Beekman G
OutThe Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.
Justin Champagnie F
OutChampagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.
Jamir Watkins G
OutThe Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–4 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Nov 9WSH 111 @ DET 122Picked DET 79%Hit
- Mar 19DET 117 @ WSH 95Picked DET 89%Hit
- Mar 17DET 130 @ WSH 117Picked DET 92%Hit
- Feb 5WSH 126 @ DET 117Picked DET 89%Miss
- Nov 10WSH 135 @ DET 137Picked DET 81%Hit
- Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125Picked DET 85%Miss
- Mar 11WSH 103 @ DET 123Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 17DET 124 @ WSH 104Picked DET 64%Hit