San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Spurs favored by 15.5, and the forecast follows it (Spurs 89%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Spurs less, at 84%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1371 Elo), lineup changes favor the Spurs and the Bulls have home court.
- It's moved toward the Spurs since we first logged it, from 83% to 89%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Spurs
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Bulls
Now 1%
2%
with a win
1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 17% to 11% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTNorman Powell out · forecast CHI 15%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTNorman Powell back · forecast CHI 16%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -15.5
- ML SA -1200 / CHI +750
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -10.5
- SA 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SA: Elo 84.0%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -785
- CHI +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SA 128.0 – 112.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −37 | SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +288 Elo | SA 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 85.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 112.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 129.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −16.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 105.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 121.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 107.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15383rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301670 | Elo rating | 137125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Offense, adjusted | +0.912th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −7.530th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor WembanyamaSA | 27 min | 24.9 | 32.6 | 29.5down from 30.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%model: under | 29% | |
| Norman PowellCHI60% to play | 26 min | 17.1 | 19.2 | 18.5down from 19.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50% | 38% | |
| Dylan HarperSA | 29 min | 17.1 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49% | 42% | |
| Stephon CastleSA | 28 min | 15.6 | 14.0 | 15.5down from 16.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 51% | 45% | |
| Caleb WilsonCHI | 27 min | 15.6 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 5/9 games over this line | 46%model: under | 27% | |
| De'Aaron FoxSA | 27 min | 14.4 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 47% | 43% | |
| Matas BuzelisCHI | 25 min | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50% | 45% | |
| Josh GiddeyCHI | 28 min | 12.4 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 1/10 games over this line | 47% | 37% | |
| Devin VassellSA60% to play | 28 min | 11.9 | 11.2 | 10.5down from 11.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 51% | 52% | |
| Keldon JohnsonSA | 24 min | 11.1 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jalen SmithCHI | 21 min | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%model: under | 35% | |
| Julian ChampagnieSA | 24 min | 9.9 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 47% | 39% | |
| Tre JonesCHI | 17 min | 9.4 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nic ClaxtonCHI | 20 min | 8.0 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 52% | 46% | |
| Isaac OkoroCHI | 19 min | 6.2 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Harrison BarnesSA | 15 min | 6.0 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Leonard MillerCHI | 12 min | 5.7 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noa EssengueCHI | 12 min | 4.6 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Patrick WilliamsCHI | 14 min | 4.6 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke KornetSA | 14 min | 4.0 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carter BryantSA | 10 min | 3.8 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Bulls win11%9%
- Spurs win89%91%
- Dylan Harper (SA) over 17.5 points49%47%
- Devin Vassell (SA) over 10.5 points51%49%
- Stephon Castle (SA) over 15.5 points51%49%
- Julian Champagnie (SA) over 10.5 points47%45%
- De'Aaron Fox (SA) over 14.5 points47%45%
- Stephon Castle (SA) over 5.5 assists50%51%
- Devin Vassell (SA) over 2.5 assists51%53%
- De'Aaron Fox (SA) over 5.5 assists55%56%
His other lines (2)
- Victor Wembanyama (SA) over 11.5 rebounds47%55%
- Victor Wembanyama (SA) over 2.5 assists56%59%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 1,751 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.3 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Bulls
−37 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | 28 | 20.9 | Available |
| Caleb Wilson | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Matas Buzelis | 25 | 15.9 | Available |
| Jalen Smith | 21 | 20.7 | Available |
| Nic Claxton | 20 | 15.1 | Available |
| Isaac Okoro | 19 | 12.3 | Available |
| Tre Jones | 17 | 20.2 | Available |
| Norman Powell | 15 | 21.2 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Patrick Williams | 14 | 10.7 | Available |
| Noa Essengue | 12 | 14.8 | Available |
| Leonard Miller | 12 | 17.2 | Available |
| Jordan Hawkins | 9 | 11.8 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Spurs
3 listedTobias Harris F
−1 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 20.6 Game Score per 48
Harris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Devin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Bulls
3 listedNorman Powell G
−9 EloDay-To-Day28 min a game when healthy · 21.2 Game Score per 48
Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.
Tobe Awaka F
Day-To-DayAwaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Zach Collins F
Day-To-DayCollins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–5 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.