Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 69%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1421 Elo), the Pelicans are on a back-to-back and the Pelicans have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nuggets
Now 82%
83%
with a win
79%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Pelicans
Now 2%
3%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Nuggets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 68%
- Fair odds
- DEN -218
- NO +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DEN 120.2 – 114.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +16 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +127 Elo | DEN 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 122.429th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −4.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 146128th of 30 |
| 11th of 301542 | Elo rating | 142123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.9 | Offense, adjusted | +1.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Defense, adjusted | −4.729th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola JokicDEN | 33 min | 23.5 | 24.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamal MurrayDEN | 33 min | 23.2 | 28.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zion WilliamsonNO | 31 min | 19.4 | 20.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trey Murphy IIINO60% to play | 32 min | 16.6 | 17.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeremiah FearsNO | 30 min | 16.2 | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dejounte MurrayNO | 28 min | 14.2 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Saddiq BeyNO | 26 min | 14.1 | 15.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aaron GordonDEN | 26 min | 12.4 | 10.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| DeMar DeRozanDEN | 20 min | 11.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cameron JohnsonDEN | 27 min | 11.6 | 11.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Christian BraunDEN | 29 min | 11.2 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Derik QueenNO | 20 min | 9.5 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bennedict MathurinNO | 15 min | 7.5 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Karlo MatkovicNO | 18 min | 7.2 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan PooleNO | 12 min | 6.4 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marvin Bagley IIIDEN | 12 min | 6.3 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Herbert JonesNO | 22 min | 6.2 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trevon BrazileDEN | 16 min | 5.7 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Spencer JonesDEN | 19 min | 4.9 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nuggets
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 26.6 | Available |
| Nikola Jokic | 33 | 36.5 | Available |
| Christian Braun | 29 | 19.1 | Available |
| Cameron Johnson | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 22.3 | Available |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 19.3 | Available |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Trevon Brazile | 16 | 18.0 | Available |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 19.3 | Available |
| Tyus Jones | 8 | 14.4 | Available |
| Bryce Hopkins | 6 | 16.9 | Available |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 16.2 | Available |
Pelicans
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 31 | 26.3 | Available |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 16.9 | Available |
| Dejounte Murray | 28 | 19.6 | Available |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 18.5 | Available |
| Herbert Jones | 22 | 13.8 | Available |
| Derik Queen | 20 | 17.2 | Available |
| Trey Murphy III | 19 | 19.7 | Day-To-Day−7 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 15 | 17.3 | Available |
| Jordan Poole | 12 | 15.0 | Available |
| Bryce McGowens | 10 | 13.0 | Available |
| Julian Reese | 5 | 15.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nuggets
1 listedJulian Strawther G
OutStrawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Pelicans
3 listedTrey Murphy III F
−7 EloDay-To-Day32 min a game when healthy · 19.7 Game Score per 48
Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Trendon Watford F
OutWatford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Yves Missi C
OutMissi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 10–2 NO in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Oct 28DEN 104 @ NO 91Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Oct 24NO 135 @ DEN 141Picked DEN 80%Hit
- Jan 13DEN 122 @ NO 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 125 @ NO 118Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Oct 29NO 88 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 5NO 119 @ DEN 144Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 3NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Dec 22DEN 132 @ NO 129Picked DEN 74%Hit