Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 56% to 61% over 6 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTT.J. McConnell back, Dereck Lively II back · forecast DAL 59%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Andrew NembhardAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints43
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Cooper FlaggRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–125
- Q40.9Andrew Nembhard bad pass
turnover (Caleb Martin steals)122–125
- Q43.7Caleb Martin enters the game for Kyrie Irving122–125
- Q43.7Pacers Full timeout122–125
- Q44.0Obi Toppin defensive rebound122–125
- Q44.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Quenton Jackson122–125
- Q44.0P.J. Washington misses free throw 2 of 2122–125
- Q44.0Mavericks offensive team rebound122–125
- Q44.0P.J. Washington misses free throw 1 of 2122–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:23Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)IND 108 – 113 DAL · DAL 66% → 81% +15DAL 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:02Cooper Flagg makes 18-foot pullup jump shotIND 116 – 120 DAL · DAL 77% → 93% +15DAL 77% → 93%+15 pts
- Q452.1Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 119 – 120 DAL · IND 6% → 34% +28IND 6% → 34%+28 pts
- Q420.6Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 122 – 123 DAL · IND <1% → 26% +26IND <1% → 26%+26 pts
- Q418.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2IND 122 – 124 DAL · DAL 75% → 91% +16DAL 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -154
- IND +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.3 – 115.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | +34 | IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −51, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +95 Elo | DAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Points scored | 113.915th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 109.19th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.9 | Margin | +4.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 112.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 108.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 29th of 301443 | Opponent Elo | 150318th of 30 |
| 24th of 301384 | Elo rating | 146420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–3 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.