Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 75% to 72% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:27 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTDereck Lively II back · forecast DAL 74%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points19
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists6
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints25
- Cooper FlaggAssists12
- Morez Johnson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–130
- Q414.8Chaney Johnson offensive foul turnover93–130
- Q414.8Chaney Johnson offensive foul93–130
- Q422.7Moussa Cisse makes free throw 2 of 293–130
- Q422.7Moussa Cisse makes free throw 1 of 293–129
- Q422.7Terance Mann shooting foul93–128
- Q428.4Max Christie defensive rebound93–128
- Q428.4Josh Minott misses 27-foot three point jumper93–128
- Q439.6Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 293–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:28Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)BKN 2 – 7 DAL · DAL 76% → 80% +5DAL 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:56Nolan Traore makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)BKN 10 – 13 DAL · BKN 19% → 23% +5BKN 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q12:20Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)BKN 21 – 27 DAL · BKN 15% → 19% +4BKN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q11:06Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot running jump shot (Keon Ellis assists)BKN 24 – 30 DAL · BKN 15% → 19% +4BKN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q10.9Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 26 – 33 DAL · DAL 77% → 83% +5DAL 77% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mavericks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML BKN +248 / DAL -305
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 72.5%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -262
- BKN +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +33 | BKN: Missing Mikel Brown Jr. −2, Grant Nelson (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +168 Elo | DAL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 112.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 110.910th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−5.9 | Margin | +1.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 110.818th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 152210th of 30 |
| 28th of 301347 | Elo rating | 145120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–6 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.