New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 77%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1380 Elo), the Pacers have home court and lineup changes favor the Pacers.
- Likely out: Tyrese Haliburton (IND).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Knicks
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Pacers
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 23% to 23% over 2 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Knicks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 78%
- Fair odds
- NY -326
- IND +326 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NY 114.7 – 105.7 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +19 | NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +215 Elo | NY 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 111.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Points allowed | 115.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.3 | Margin | −3.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.821st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–427th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 144229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301658 | Elo rating | 138024th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Offense, adjusted | −1.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+6.9 | Defense, adjusted | −2.323rd of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen BrunsonNY | 33 min | 24.3 | 26.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pascal SiakamIND | 30 min | 19.7 | 20.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Karl-Anthony TownsNY | 31 min | 18.7 | 20.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| OG AnunobyNY | 32 min | 17.0 | 15.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew NembhardIND | 30 min | 14.4 | 17.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aaron NesmithIND | 26 min | 11.6 | 12.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Landry ShametNY | 27 min | 9.9 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Obi ToppinIND | 17 min | 9.5 | 11.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Quenton JacksonIND | 21 min | 9.5 | 12.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikal BridgesNY | 24 min | 8.8 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivica ZubacIND | 18 min | 7.8 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jarace WalkerIND | 19 min | 7.6 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Miles McBrideNY | 19 min | 7.1 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.IND | 17 min | 6.7 | 10.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan ClarksonNY | 12 min | 5.8 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kobe BrownIND | 14 min | 5.1 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andre DrummondNY | 14 min | 4.5 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler KolekNY | 12 min | 4.5 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Larry Nance Jr.IND | 14 min | 4.2 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mohamed DiawaraNY | 11 min | 3.7 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braden SmithIND | 13 min | 3.6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Knicks
−8 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 33 | 27.4 | Available |
| OG Anunoby | 32 | 21.7 | Available |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| Landry Shamet | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Mikal Bridges | 24 | 18.5 | Available |
| Miles McBride | 19 | 17.9 | Available |
| Andre Drummond | 14 | 17.7 | Available |
| Tyler Kolek | 12 | 19.2 | Available |
| Jordan Clarkson | 12 | 18.0 | Available |
| Mohamed Diawara | 11 | 16.4 | Available |
| Jose Alvarado | 8 | 16.6 | Available |
| Dalton Knecht | 6 | 14.9 | Available |
Pacers
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 30 | 17.3 | Available |
| Pascal Siakam | 30 | 23.3 | Available |
| Aaron Nesmith | 26 | 15.6 | Available |
| Quenton Jackson | 21 | 18.2 | Available |
| Jarace Walker | 19 | 13.2 | Available |
| Ivica Zubac | 18 | 22.8 | Available |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 17 | 14.3 | Available |
| Obi Toppin | 17 | 20.1 | Available |
| Kobe Brown | 14 | 13.2 | Available |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 14 | 15.6 | Available |
| Braden Smith | 13 | 17.0 | Available |
| Jay Huff | 9 | 17.0 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Knicks
1 listedJosh Hart G
−2 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 19.6 Game Score per 48
Hart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.
Pacers
4 listedTyrese Haliburton G
−50 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 27.5 Game Score per 48
Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
T.J. McConnell G
−2 EloDay-To-Day13 min a game when healthy · 21.4 Game Score per 48
McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.
Johnny Furphy G
OutFurphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.
Ben Sheppard G
OutHead coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 11–12 IND in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.
- Mar 17IND 110 @ NY 136Picked NY 85%Hit
- Mar 13NY 101 @ IND 92Picked NY 84%Hit
- Feb 10IND 137 @ NY 134Picked NY 81%Miss
- Dec 18NY 114 @ IND 113Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 31NY 108 @ IND 125PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- May 29IND 94 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- May 27NY 121 @ IND 130PlayoffsPicked IND 58%Hit
- May 25NY 106 @ IND 100PlayoffsPicked IND 52%Miss