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Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

ESPN

Away

Cavaliers

5-6

40%

at

Home

Knicks

6-4

60%

The pick
NY · Lean
Line
NY -3.5
Projected
109–113
Fair odds
-150

Your pick

Madison Square Garden · ESPN

The short version

  • The betting line has the Knicks favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Knicks 60%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings like the Knicks more, at 66%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1548 Elo), the Knicks are on a back-to-back and the Knicks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Cavaliers

Now 92%

93%

with a win

91%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Knicks

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

How the forecast moved

NY went from 60% to 60% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (NY win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
50%60%70%Sat 9 PMMon 11 AMWed 12 AM

Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTJarrett Allen back · forecast NY 62%

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Knicks 60%

Lean
CLE 40%NY 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
NY -3.5
ML CLE +140 / NY -166
Pre-line forecast
NY 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -4
NY 66%
Ratings vs. market
+6.1 pts
NY: Elo 66.0%, market 60.0%
Fair odds
NY -150
CLE +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
NY 62%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Projected score
CLE 109.0 – 112.5 NY
Posted spread, posted total 221.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLENYWhy
Team rating15481658Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40NY on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−17−8CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsNY +115 EloNY 66.0%
Market-implied ratingsNY 60.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 60.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 60.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatNY
10th of 30116.5Points scored110.622nd of 30
19th of 30115.0Points allowed102.31st of 30
15th of 30+1.5Margin+8.36th of 30
13th of 30113.3Offense rating113.410th of 30
15th of 30111.8Defense rating104.94th of 30
10th of 30102.0Pace97.828th of 30
22nd of 301–4Road vs home4–28th of 30
11th of 301518Opponent Elo147524th of 30
10th of 301548Elo rating16583rd of 30
6th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted−0.421st of 30
16th of 30−0.5Defense, adjusted+6.91st of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Jalen BrunsonNY24.0—— No line
Donovan MitchellCLE20.9—— No line
Karl-Anthony TownsNY18.4—— No line
OG AnunobyNY16.8—— No line
James HardenCLE15.0—— No line
Evan MobleyCLE14.7—— No line
Peyton WatsonCLE11.2—— No line
Meleek ThomasCLE11.1—— No line
Jarrett AllenCLE10.0—— No line
Landry ShametNY9.7—— No line
Mikal BridgesNY8.7—— No line
Mario HezonjaCLE7.7—— No line
Tyrese ProctorCLE7.6—— No line
Miles McBrideNY7.0—— No line
Jordan ClarksonNY5.8—— No line
Thomas BryantCLE5.5—— No line
Andre DrummondNY4.5—— No line
Tyler KolekNY4.4—— No line
Mohamed DiawaraNY3.7—— No line
Craig Porter Jr.CLE2.3—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Knicks

−8 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Brunson3327.4Available
OG Anunoby3221.7Available
Karl-Anthony Towns3128.0Available
Landry Shamet2716.3Available
Mikal Bridges2418.5Available
Miles McBride1917.9Available
Andre Drummond1417.7Available
Tyler Kolek1219.2Available
Jordan Clarkson1218.0Available
Mohamed Diawara1116.4Available
Jose Alvarado816.6Available
Dalton Knecht614.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersKnicks
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Knicks

1 listed

  • Josh Hart G

    −2 EloOut

    31 min a game when healthy · 19.6 Game Score per 48

    Hart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLENY
Against the spread2–73–5
Last 102–73–5
Favorite1–53–4
Underdog1–20–1
Overs–unders5–42–6
Overs–unders, last 105–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 6–9 NY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.