Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
- The pick
- OKC · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 112–111
- Fair odds
- -122
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1674 to 1506 Elo), lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers and the Trail Blazers have home court.
- Likely out: Ja Morant (POR), Chet Holmgren (OKC) and Jalen Williams (OKC).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Thunder
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Trail Blazers
Now 58%
60%
with a win
56%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
POR went from 44% to 45% over 5 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- OKC 53%
- Fair odds
- OKC -122
- POR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- OKC 112.1 – 110.6 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −69 | +46 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −38, Jalen Williams −30 · POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +18 Elo | OKC 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 119.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Points allowed | 113.816th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+8.0 | Margin | +5.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Defense rating | 111.014th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.46th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150516th of 30 |
| 1st of 301674 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.0 | Offense, adjusted | +1.110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+5.2 | Defense, adjusted | +0.910th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | 32 min | 27.5 | 33.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Deni AvdijaPOR | 32 min | 20.8 | 22.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Damian LillardPOR | 28 min | 17.4 | 20.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ajay MitchellOKC | 28 min | 15.8 | 19.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jared McCainOKC | 26 min | 13.5 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jrue HolidayPOR | 26 min | 12.6 | 13.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Scoot HendersonPOR | 23 min | 10.8 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Donovan ClinganPOR | 25 min | 10.8 | 13.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Toumani CamaraPOR | 27 min | 10.7 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bennett StirtzOKC | 22 min | 9.5 | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aday MaraOKC | 22 min | 9.1 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kenrich WilliamsOKC | 22 min | 8.8 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah HartensteinOKC | 24 min | 8.1 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex CarusoOKC | 19 min | 7.5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Robert Williams IIIPOR | 16 min | 6.5 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Micah PeavyOKC | 20 min | 5.7 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chris YoungbloodPOR | 12 min | 4.9 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sidy CissokoPOR | 19 min | 4.9 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh DixOKC | 13 min | 2.7 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Thunder
−69 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 36.6 | Available |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 | 24.7 | Available |
| Jared McCain | 26 | 18.0 | Available |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 24 | 23.8 | Available |
| Bennett Stirtz | 22 | 17.7 | Available |
| Aday Mara | 22 | 18.9 | Available |
| Kenrich Williams | 22 | 18.1 | Available |
| Micah Peavy | 20 | 13.2 | Available |
| Alex Caruso | 19 | 22.3 | Available |
| Josh Dix | 13 | 16.4 | Available |
| Nique Clifford | 8 | 12.0 | Available |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 6 | 13.4 | Available |
Trail Blazers
+46 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 22.9 | Available |
| Damian Lillard | 28 | 25.4 | Available |
| Toumani Camara | 27 | 14.9 | Available |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 20.6 | Available |
| Donovan Clingan | 25 | 21.7 | Available |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 14.7 | Available |
| Sidy Cissoko | 19 | 12.7 | Available |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 22.8 | Available |
| Chris Youngblood | 12 | 17.1 | Available |
| Yang Hansen | 9 | 13.2 | Available |
| Branden Carlson | 7 | 18.8 | Available |
| Micah Potter | 7 | 15.8 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Thunder
5 listedChet Holmgren C
−38 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 27.1 Game Score per 48
Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
Jalen Williams G
−30 EloOut26 min a game when healthy · 26.0 Game Score per 48
Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.
Jaylin Williams F
OutWilliams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Thomas Sorber C
OutSorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.
Cason Wallace G
OutWallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Trail Blazers
3 listedJa Morant G
−28 EloOut27 min a game when healthy · 24.5 Game Score per 48
Head coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.
Vit Krejci G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Shaedon Sharpe G
OutSharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 11–1 POR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Dec 31POR 95 @ OKC 124Picked OKC 87%Hit
- Nov 30OKC 123 @ POR 115Picked OKC 83%Hit
- Nov 23POR 95 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Nov 5OKC 119 @ POR 121Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Mar 7POR 89 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Jan 26OKC 118 @ POR 108Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Nov 20POR 99 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 1OKC 137 @ POR 114Picked OKC 84%Hit