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Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Away

Mavericks

7-4

33%

at

Home

Timberwolves

8-3

67%

The pick
MIN · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–116
Fair odds
-203

Your pick

Target Center · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1468 Elo), lineup changes favor the Mavericks and the Timberwolves have home court.
  • Likely out: Anthony Edwards (MIN) and Dereck Lively II (DAL).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Mavericks

Now 18%

20%

with a win

17%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

98%

with a win

97%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

MIN went from 69% to 67% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (MIN win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
60%68%75%Sun 8 PMMon 10 PMWed 12 AM

Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTDereck Lively II out · forecast MIN 67%

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Timberwolves 67%

Solid
DAL 33%MIN 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -5
MIN 69%
Fair odds
MIN -203
DAL +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 110.8 – 116.2 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALMINWhy
Team rating14681638Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+38−33DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMIN +135 EloMIN 68.5%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 66.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 67.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatMIN
14th of 30114.9Points scored118.16th of 30
9th of 30110.3Points allowed107.06th of 30
12th of 30+4.6Margin+11.13rd of 30
11th of 30113.3Offense rating114.88th of 30
10th of 30108.8Defense rating104.02nd of 30
21st of 30100.8Pace101.713th of 30
6th of 277–3Last 107–36th of 27
13th of 302–2Road vs home4–16th of 30
18th of 301494Opponent Elo149220th of 30
20th of 301468Elo rating16385th of 30
13th of 30+0.8Offense, adjusted+1.58th of 30
18th of 30−0.9Defense, adjusted+3.07th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Cooper FlaggDAL22.1—— No line
LaMelo BallMIN20.8—— No line
Kyrie IrvingDAL20.0—— No line
Ayo DosunmuMIN17.8—— No line
Jaden McDanielsMIN16.3—— No line
Jonathan KumingaMIN14.4—— No line
P.J. WashingtonDAL13.1—— No line
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN10.1—— No line
Naji MarshallDAL10.0—— No line
Santi AldamaDAL9.3—— No line
Daniel GaffordDAL8.9—— No line
Rudy GobertMIN8.5—— No line
Trey LylesMIN7.2—— No line
Walter Clayton Jr.DAL7.0—— No line
Bones HylandMIN6.6—— No line
Zaccharie RisacherDAL6.4—— No line
Morez Johnson Jr.DAL60% to play6.4—— No line
Joan BeringerMIN6.2—— No line
Jaylen ClarkMIN5.6—— No line
Max ChristieDAL4.7—— No line
Caleb MartinDAL4.2—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1716.0Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksTimberwolves
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Dereck Lively II C

    −13 EloOut

    16 min a game when healthy · 21.9 Game Score per 48

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    −2 EloDay-To-Day

    18 min a game when healthy · 18.5 Game Score per 48

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    −40 EloOut

    34 min a game when healthy · 26.1 Game Score per 48

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALMIN
Against the spread7–39–1
Last 107–39–1
Favorite2–14–1
Underdog5–25–0
Overs–unders2–85–5
Overs–unders, last 102–85–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 6–10 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.