Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Pacers favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Pacers 60%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Pacers less, at 54%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Pacers rate higher (1380 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Pacers have home court.
- Likely out: Tyrese Haliburton (IND).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Wizards
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Pacers
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 59% to 60% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTAnthony Davis back · forecast IND 55%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML WSH +139 / IND -166
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- IND: Elo 53.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 111.0 – 114.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1326 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | +19 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +26 Elo | IND 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 111.421st of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 115.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−5.3 | Margin | −3.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 108.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 19th of 273–7 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 27 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 0–427th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 144229th of 30 |
| 29th of 301326 | Elo rating | 138024th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.0 | Offense, adjusted | −1.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.1 | Defense, adjusted | −2.323rd of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal SiakamIND | 30 min | 20.9 | 20.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony DavisWSH | 31 min | 20.1 | 28.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trae YoungWSH | 32 min | 18.5 | 16.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew NembhardIND | 30 min | 15.3 | 17.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyshawn GeorgeWSH | 32 min | 15.1 | 21.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| AJ DybantsaWSH | 28 min | 13.2 | 16.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aaron NesmithIND | 26 min | 12.3 | 12.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex SarrWSH | 24 min | 11.3 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Obi ToppinIND | 17 min | 10.1 | 11.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Quenton JacksonIND | 21 min | 10.0 | 12.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tre JohnsonWSH | 22 min | 9.2 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bilal CoulibalyWSH | 23 min | 8.8 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivica ZubacIND | 18 min | 8.3 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jarace WalkerIND | 19 min | 8.1 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.IND | 17 min | 7.1 | 10.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bub CarringtonWSH | 18 min | 6.7 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kobe BrownIND | 14 min | 5.4 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Deandre AytonWSH | 14 min | 5.0 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Larry Nance Jr.IND | 14 min | 4.4 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braden SmithIND | 13 min | 3.8 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Wizards
+70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 32 | 23.3 | Available |
| Kyshawn George | 32 | 13.3 | Available |
| Anthony Davis | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| AJ Dybantsa | 28 | 17.2 | Available |
| Alex Sarr | 24 | 15.5 | Available |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 23 | 10.8 | Available |
| Tre Johnson | 22 | 11.8 | Available |
| Bub Carrington | 18 | 9.3 | Available |
| Deandre Ayton | 14 | 18.5 | Available |
| Will Riley | 7 | 12.2 | Available |
| Jamir Watkins | — | 14.4 | Out |
| Justin Champagnie | — | 16.8 | Out |
Pacers
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 30 | 17.3 | Available |
| Pascal Siakam | 30 | 23.3 | Available |
| Aaron Nesmith | 26 | 15.6 | Available |
| Quenton Jackson | 21 | 18.2 | Available |
| Jarace Walker | 19 | 13.2 | Available |
| Ivica Zubac | 18 | 22.8 | Available |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 17 | 14.3 | Available |
| Obi Toppin | 17 | 20.1 | Available |
| Kobe Brown | 14 | 13.2 | Available |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 14 | 15.6 | Available |
| Braden Smith | 13 | 17.0 | Available |
| Jay Huff | 9 | 17.0 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Wizards
4 listedTristan Vukcevic F
−1 EloOut14 min a game when healthy · 17.3 Game Score per 48
Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.
Reece Beekman G
OutThe Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.
Justin Champagnie F
OutChampagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.
Jamir Watkins G
OutThe Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.
Pacers
4 listedTyrese Haliburton G
−50 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 27.5 Game Score per 48
Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
T.J. McConnell G
−2 EloDay-To-Day13 min a game when healthy · 21.4 Game Score per 48
McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.
Johnny Furphy G
OutFurphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.
Ben Sheppard G
OutHead coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 20IND 118 @ WSH 131Picked WSH 53%Hit
- Feb 19IND 105 @ WSH 112Picked IND 54%Miss
- Dec 14WSH 108 @ IND 89Picked IND 78%Miss
- Nov 28WSH 86 @ IND 119Picked IND 69%Hit
- Apr 8WSH 98 @ IND 104Picked IND 93%Hit
- Mar 27IND 162 @ WSH 109Picked IND 84%Hit
- Feb 12IND 134 @ WSH 130Picked IND 79%Hit
- Nov 24WSH 103 @ IND 115Picked IND 85%Hit