Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 72%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1674 to 1491 Elo) and the Clippers have home court.
- Likely out: Brandon Ingram (LAC), Chet Holmgren (OKC) and Jalen Williams (OKC).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Thunder
Now >99%
100%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Clippers
Now 15%
19%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 29% to 28% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 70%
- Fair odds
- OKC -262
- LAC +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- OKC 115.3 – 107.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −69 | −70 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −38, Jalen Williams −30 · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +148 Elo | OKC 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 112.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+8.0 | Margin | −5.923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 109.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15364th of 30 |
| 1st of 301674 | Elo rating | 149116th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.0 | Offense, adjusted | −0.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+5.2 | Defense, adjusted | −1.119th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | 32 min | 28.1 | 33.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Darius GarlandLAC | 30 min | 18.9 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ajay MitchellOKC | 28 min | 16.2 | 19.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jared McCainOKC | 26 min | 13.8 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rui HachimuraLAC | 27 min | 12.5 | 16.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brook LopezLAC | 22 min | 10.4 | 13.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Keaton WaglerLAC | 19 min | 10.3 | 10.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kobe SandersLAC | 23 min | 9.8 | 12.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Derrick Jones Jr.LAC | 26 min | 9.7 | 10.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bennett StirtzOKC | 22 min | 9.7 | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aday MaraOKC | 22 min | 9.3 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kenrich WilliamsOKC | 22 min | 8.9 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max StrusLAC | 21 min | 8.4 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah HartensteinOKC | 24 min | 8.3 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex CarusoOKC | 19 min | 7.6 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah JacksonLAC | 18 min | 7.5 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gradey DickLAC | 14 min | 6.7 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kris DunnLAC | 25 min | 6.6 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Micah PeavyOKC | 20 min | 5.8 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh DixOKC | 13 min | 2.7 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Thunder
−69 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 36.6 | Available |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 | 24.7 | Available |
| Jared McCain | 26 | 18.0 | Available |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 24 | 23.8 | Available |
| Bennett Stirtz | 22 | 17.7 | Available |
| Aday Mara | 22 | 18.9 | Available |
| Kenrich Williams | 22 | 18.1 | Available |
| Micah Peavy | 20 | 13.2 | Available |
| Alex Caruso | 19 | 22.3 | Available |
| Josh Dix | 13 | 16.4 | Available |
| Nique Clifford | 8 | 12.0 | Available |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 6 | 13.4 | Available |
Clippers
−70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 30 | 22.1 | Available |
| Rui Hachimura | 27 | 15.9 | Available |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 26 | 16.9 | Available |
| Kris Dunn | 25 | 15.3 | Available |
| Kobe Sanders | 23 | 15.2 | Available |
| Brook Lopez | 22 | 17.5 | Available |
| Max Strus | 21 | 16.3 | Available |
| Keaton Wagler | 19 | 17.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Jackson | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Gradey Dick | 14 | 14.7 | Available |
| Baba Miller | 9 | 18.7 | Available |
| Brandon Ingram | — | 20.4 | Out−16 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Thunder
5 listedChet Holmgren C
−38 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 27.1 Game Score per 48
Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
Jalen Williams G
−30 EloOut26 min a game when healthy · 26.0 Game Score per 48
Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.
Jaylin Williams F
OutWilliams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Thomas Sorber C
OutSorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.
Cason Wallace G
OutWallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Clippers
5 listedBrandon Ingram F
−16 EloOut28 min a game when healthy · 20.4 Game Score per 48
Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser C
−5 EloOut15 min a game when healthy · 18.8 Game Score per 48
Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Jordan Miller G
−3 EloOut27 min a game when healthy · 17.7 Game Score per 48
Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
Cam Christie G
OutChristie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.
Bradley Beal G
OutBeal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 10–1 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Oct 25LAC 101 @ OKC 108Picked OKC 83%Hit
- Apr 8OKC 128 @ LAC 110Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Dec 18LAC 101 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Nov 4OKC 126 @ LAC 107Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 23OKC 103 @ LAC 101Picked LAC 50%Miss
- Jan 2LAC 98 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Nov 11LAC 128 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 2OKC 105 @ LAC 92Picked OKC 66%Hit