Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cavaliers at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1468 Elo), lineup changes favor the Mavericks and the Cavaliers are on a back-to-back.
- Likely out: Dereck Lively II (DAL).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Mavericks
Now 18%
20%
with a win
17%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Cavaliers
Now 92%
93%
with a win
90%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Cavaliers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -149
- DAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DAL 114.0 – 117.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +38 | −17 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 115.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 113.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 111.815th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.010th of 30 |
| 6th of 277–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 27 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 151811th of 30 |
| 20th of 301468 | Elo rating | 154810th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.16th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Defense, adjusted | −0.516th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper FlaggDAL | 33 min | 22.5 | 25.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Donovan MitchellCLE | 31 min | 22.0 | 23.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyrie IrvingDAL | 31 min | 20.4 | 26.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| James HardenCLE | 31 min | 15.8 | 13.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Evan MobleyCLE | 30 min | 15.5 | 15.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| P.J. WashingtonDAL | 31 min | 13.4 | 15.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Peyton WatsonCLE | 25 min | 11.8 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Meleek ThomasCLE | 22 min | 11.7 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jarrett AllenCLE | 22 min | 10.5 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Naji MarshallDAL | 21 min | 10.2 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Santi AldamaDAL | 20 min | 9.5 | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Daniel GaffordDAL | 20 min | 9.1 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mario HezonjaCLE | 20 min | 8.2 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyrese ProctorCLE | 19 min | 8.1 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Walter Clayton Jr.DAL | 19 min | 7.2 | 10.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zaccharie RisacherDAL | 18 min | 6.6 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morez Johnson Jr.DAL60% to play | 15 min | 6.6 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Thomas BryantCLE | 11 min | 5.8 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max ChristieDAL | 13 min | 4.8 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Caleb MartinDAL | 17 min | 4.3 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Craig Porter Jr.CLE | 11 min | 2.4 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Mavericks
+38 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 33 | 22.5 | Available |
| P.J. Washington | 31 | 15.2 | Available |
| Kyrie Irving | 31 | 25.2 | Available |
| Naji Marshall | 21 | 17.5 | Available |
| Daniel Gafford | 20 | 21.6 | Available |
| Santi Aldama | 20 | 18.9 | Available |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 19 | 14.3 | Available |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 18 | 15.7 | Available |
| Caleb Martin | 17 | 11.6 | Available |
| Max Christie | 13 | 12.4 | Available |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 9 | 18.5 | Day-To-Day−2 |
| Marcus Sasser | 5 | 16.9 | Available |
Cavaliers
−17 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 31 | 28.1 | Available |
| James Harden | 31 | 23.2 | Available |
| Evan Mobley | 30 | 24.4 | Available |
| Peyton Watson | 25 | 16.5 | Available |
| Meleek Thomas | 22 | 17.9 | Available |
| Jarrett Allen | 22 | 26.0 | Available |
| Mario Hezonja | 20 | 17.4 | Available |
| Tyrese Proctor | 19 | 17.5 | Available |
| Thomas Bryant | 11 | 18.9 | Available |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 11 | 17.2 | Available |
| Riley Minix | 7 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 5 | 17.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Mavericks
4 listedDereck Lively II C
−13 EloOut16 min a game when healthy · 21.9 Game Score per 48
Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.
Morez Johnson Jr. F
−2 EloDay-To-Day18 min a game when healthy · 18.5 Game Score per 48
Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.
Sergio de Larrea F
OutDe Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.
Tarik Biberovic F
OutBiberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.
Cavaliers
2 listedSam Merrill G
OutMerrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.
Jaylon Tyson G
OutTyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–8 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–5 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.