Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Celtics favored by 7.5, and the forecast follows it (Celtics 71%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Celtics less, at 64%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1521 Elo), lineup changes favor the Celtics and the Celtics are on a back-to-back.
- Likely out: Scottie Barnes (TOR) and Kawhi Leonard (TOR).
- It's moved toward the Celtics since we first logged it, from 57% to 71%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Celtics
Now 100%
100%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Raptors
Now 78%
80%
with a win
76%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 43% to 29% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 11 at 12:29 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTScottie Barnes out · forecast TOR 34%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML BOS -279 / TOR +228
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.3%, market 70.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -241
- TOR +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BOS 111.5 – 104.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −60 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +102 Elo | BOS 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 70.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 113.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +3.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 110.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 102.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 147523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301650 | Elo rating | 152113th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Offense, adjusted | +0.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+5.5 | Defense, adjusted | +0.811th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson TatumBOS | 31 min | 22.3 | 25.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| RJ BarrettTOR | 35 min | 22.2 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Paul GeorgeBOS | 28 min | 16.8 | 22.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Immanuel QuickleyTOR60% to play | 32 min | 16.6 | 17.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Payton PritchardBOS | 26 min | 13.5 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin Murray-BoylesTOR60% to play | 25 min | 11.7 | 13.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ja'Kobe WalterTOR | 31 min | 11.6 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Derrick WhiteBOS | 27 min | 11.1 | 12.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jakob PoeltlTOR | 24 min | 10.5 | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamison BattleTOR | 21 min | 9.2 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Neemias QuetaBOS | 21 min | 8.9 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Malachi SmithTOR | 24 min | 8.4 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamal SheadTOR | 28 min | 8.2 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam HauserBOS | 20 min | 7.6 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alijah MartinTOR | 15 min | 6.8 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luka GarzaBOS | 12 min | 6.6 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Baylor ScheiermanBOS | 19 min | 6.2 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mitchell RobinsonBOS | 17 min | 5.7 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Allen GravesTOR | 13 min | 4.2 | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan WalshBOS | 15 min | 4.2 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hugo GonzalezBOS | 14 min | 4.1 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Celtics
−11 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 31 | 28.8 | Available |
| Paul George | 28 | 21.2 | Available |
| Derrick White | 27 | 21.8 | Available |
| Payton Pritchard | 26 | 22.9 | Available |
| Neemias Queta | 21 | 24.0 | Available |
| Sam Hauser | 20 | 18.9 | Available |
| Baylor Scheierman | 19 | 16.6 | Available |
| Mitchell Robinson | 17 | 20.5 | Available |
| Jordan Walsh | 15 | 15.4 | Available |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 14 | 16.7 | Available |
| Luka Garza | 12 | 22.5 | Available |
Raptors
−60 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 35 | 21.3 | Available |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 31 | 14.8 | Available |
| Jamal Shead | 28 | 15.1 | Available |
| Jakob Poeltl | 24 | 21.0 | Available |
| Malachi Smith | 24 | 15.6 | Available |
| Jamison Battle | 21 | 15.1 | Available |
| Immanuel Quickley | 19 | 21.4 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 15 | 20.2 | Day-To-Day−4 |
| Alijah Martin | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Allen Graves | 13 | 18.6 | Available |
| Kyle Anderson | 7 | 16.2 | Available |
| Jaden Bradley | 5 | 18.6 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Celtics
Nothing on the injury report.
Raptors
6 listedKawhi Leonard F
−65 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 31.0 Game Score per 48
Leonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Scottie Barnes F
−33 EloOut35 min a game when healthy · 23.6 Game Score per 48
Barnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Immanuel Quickley G
−9 EloDay-To-Day32 min a game when healthy · 21.4 Game Score per 48
Quickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Collin Murray-Boyles F
−4 EloDay-To-Day25 min a game when healthy · 20.2 Game Score per 48
Murray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.
Trayce Jackson-Davis F
−1 EloDay-To-Day6 min a game when healthy · 19.2 Game Score per 48
Jackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.
Nate Bittle C
OutBittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–1 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Apr 5TOR 101 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 78%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 117 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 75%Hit
- Dec 20BOS 112 @ TOR 96Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Dec 7BOS 121 @ TOR 113Picked BOS 58%Hit
- Feb 25BOS 111 @ TOR 101Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 97 @ TOR 110Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Dec 31TOR 71 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 16TOR 123 @ BOS 126Picked BOS 90%Hit