Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Pelicans favored by 4.5, and the forecast follows it (Pelicans 63%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 61%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Pelicans rate higher (1421 to 1335 Elo), the Pelicans have home court and the Pelicans traveled east across time zones.
- It's moved toward the Nets since we first logged it, from 34% to 37%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nets
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Pelicans
Now 2%
3%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 66% to 63% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTZion Williamson out, Trey Murphy III out · forecast NO 55%
Tue, Nov 10, 12:44 AM ESTZion Williamson back, Trey Murphy III back · forecast NO 60%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pelicans 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NO -4.5
- ML BKN +160 / NO -191
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NO: Elo 60.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -171
- BKN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BKN 112.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +16 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +76 Elo | NO 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 122.429th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −4.920th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 111.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 115.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 146128th of 30 |
| 28th of 301335 | Elo rating | 142123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.7 | Offense, adjusted | +1.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Defense, adjusted | −4.729th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Porter Jr.BKN | 31 min | 20.8 | 22.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zion WilliamsonNO | 31 min | 19.6 | 20.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Julius RandleBKN | 31 min | 17.3 | 19.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trey Murphy IIINO60% to play | 32 min | 16.8 | 17.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeremiah FearsNO | 30 min | 16.5 | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dejounte MurrayNO | 28 min | 14.4 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Saddiq BeyNO | 26 min | 14.3 | 15.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikel Brown Jr.BKN | 20 min | 11.0 | 15.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nolan TraoreBKN60% to play | 22 min | 10.8 | 16.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Derik QueenNO | 20 min | 9.6 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Day'Ron SharpeBKN | 23 min | 9.5 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Moritz WagnerBKN | 16 min | 9.0 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Danny WolfBKN | 19 min | 8.1 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bennedict MathurinNO | 15 min | 7.6 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Karlo MatkovicNO | 18 min | 7.3 | 11.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan PooleNO | 12 min | 6.4 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah ClowneyBKN | 16 min | 6.4 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Herbert JonesNO | 22 min | 6.3 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chaney JohnsonBKN | 16 min | 5.2 | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben SarafBKN | 13 min | 5.0 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Keon EllisBKN | 15 min | 4.1 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Terance MannBKN | 13 min | 3.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nets
+39 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Porter Jr. | 31 | 20.2 | Available |
| Julius Randle | 31 | 21.3 | Available |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 23 | 20.6 | Available |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 20 | 16.5 | Available |
| Danny Wolf | 19 | 14.1 | Available |
| Noah Clowney | 16 | 11.0 | Available |
| Moritz Wagner | 16 | 19.9 | Available |
| Chaney Johnson | 16 | 14.1 | Available |
| Keon Ellis | 15 | 13.5 | Available |
| Nolan Traore | 13 | 12.5 | Day-To-Day |
| Ben Saraf | 13 | 11.5 | Available |
| Terance Mann | 13 | 12.4 | Available |
Pelicans
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 31 | 26.3 | Available |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 16.9 | Available |
| Dejounte Murray | 28 | 19.6 | Available |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 18.5 | Available |
| Herbert Jones | 22 | 13.8 | Available |
| Derik Queen | 20 | 17.2 | Available |
| Trey Murphy III | 19 | 19.7 | Day-To-Day−7 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 15 | 17.3 | Available |
| Jordan Poole | 12 | 15.0 | Available |
| Bryce McGowens | 10 | 13.0 | Available |
| Julian Reese | 5 | 15.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nets
3 listedNolan Traore G
Day-To-DayTraore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.
Egor Demin G
OutDemin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Grant Nelson F
Day-To-DayNelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Pelicans
3 listedTrey Murphy III F
−7 EloDay-To-Day32 min a game when healthy · 19.7 Game Score per 48
Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Trendon Watford F
OutWatford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Yves Missi C
OutMissi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–3 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.