Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Grizzlies at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Grizzlies rate higher (1443 to 1335 Elo), the Grizzlies are on a back-to-back and the Grizzlies have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nets
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Grizzlies
Now 8%
8%
with a win
6%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Grizzlies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 68%
- Fair odds
- MEM -203
- BKN +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BKN 110.3 – 115.6 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | +65 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +132 Elo | MEM 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 110.811th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +7.110th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 114.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 108.09th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 143730th of 30 |
| 28th of 301335 | Elo rating | 144322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.7 | Offense, adjusted | +0.615th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Defense, adjusted | −2.022nd of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty JeromeMEM | 29 min | 21.5 | 24.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael Porter Jr.BKN | 31 min | 20.6 | 22.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Julius RandleBKN | 31 min | 17.1 | 19.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cameron BoozerMEM | 30 min | 14.3 | 17.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cedric CowardMEM | 26 min | 13.0 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jerami GrantMEM | 22 min | 11.5 | 12.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaylen WellsMEM | 25 min | 11.0 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikel Brown Jr.BKN | 20 min | 10.9 | 15.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nolan TraoreBKN60% to play | 22 min | 10.7 | 16.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Javon SmallMEM | 21 min | 9.7 | 11.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Day'Ron SharpeBKN | 23 min | 9.4 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Moritz WagnerBKN | 16 min | 8.9 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach EdeyMEM | 21 min | 8.6 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Danny WolfBKN | 19 min | 8.0 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cam SpencerMEM | 19 min | 8.0 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah StewartMEM60% to play | 16 min | 7.3 | 13.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| GG JacksonMEM | 12 min | 6.7 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah ClowneyBKN | 16 min | 6.3 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chaney JohnsonBKN | 16 min | 5.2 | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben SarafBKN | 13 min | 5.0 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Keon EllisBKN | 15 min | 4.0 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Terance MannBKN | 13 min | 3.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nets
+39 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Porter Jr. | 31 | 20.2 | Available |
| Julius Randle | 31 | 21.3 | Available |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 23 | 20.6 | Available |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 20 | 16.5 | Available |
| Danny Wolf | 19 | 14.1 | Available |
| Noah Clowney | 16 | 11.0 | Available |
| Moritz Wagner | 16 | 19.9 | Available |
| Chaney Johnson | 16 | 14.1 | Available |
| Keon Ellis | 15 | 13.5 | Available |
| Nolan Traore | 13 | 12.5 | Day-To-Day |
| Ben Saraf | 13 | 11.5 | Available |
| Terance Mann | 13 | 12.4 | Available |
Grizzlies
+65 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 30 | 18.6 | Available |
| Ty Jerome | 29 | 26.7 | Available |
| Cedric Coward | 26 | 20.2 | Available |
| Jaylen Wells | 25 | 15.5 | Available |
| Jerami Grant | 22 | 16.5 | Available |
| Zach Edey | 21 | 22.1 | Available |
| Javon Small | 21 | 17.5 | Available |
| Cam Spencer | 19 | 20.1 | Available |
| GG Jackson | 12 | 16.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Stewart | 9 | 17.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Kris Murray | 9 | 13.0 | Available |
| Taylor Hendricks | 7 | 13.2 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nets
3 listedNolan Traore G
Day-To-DayTraore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.
Egor Demin G
OutDemin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Grant Nelson F
Day-To-DayNelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Grizzlies
4 listedScotty Pippen Jr. G
−3 EloOut17 min a game when healthy · 18.2 Game Score per 48
Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.
Richie Saunders G
−1 EloOut7 min a game when healthy · 17.9 Game Score per 48
Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Isaiah Stewart C
Day-To-DayStewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.
Quinten Post C
OutPost (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–3 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.