Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 91%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1309 Elo), lineup changes favor the Rockets and the Rockets have home court.
- Likely out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTAH), Lauri Markkanen (UTAH), Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTAH) and Keyonte George (UTAH).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jazz
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Rockets
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 89% to 91% over 2 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTLauri Markkanen out · forecast HOU 91%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rockets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -14
- HOU 90%
- Fair odds
- HOU -1009
- UTAH +1009 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- UTAH 103.1 – 120.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1309 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +16 | UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +390 Elo | HOU 90.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 91.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 91.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 115.513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 106.45th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.2 | Margin | +9.15th of 30 |
| 29th of 30102.5 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 107.47th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 271–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 27 |
| 27th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 15462nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301309 | Elo rating | 16048th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.2 | Offense, adjusted | 0.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−4.0 | Defense, adjusted | +4.66th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin DurantHOU | 33 min | 22.8 | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alperen SengunHOU | 33 min | 20.1 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Darryn PetersonUTAH | 32 min | 17.2 | 18.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ace BaileyUTAH | 34 min | 17.2 | 12.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jabari Smith Jr.HOU | 35 min | 16.3 | 16.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Amen ThompsonHOU | 32 min | 15.5 | 11.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fred VanVleetHOU | 29 min | 12.6 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brice SensabaughUTAH | 17 min | 10.9 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaxson HayesUTAH | 25 min | 10.0 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Isaiah CollierUTAH | 19 min | 9.5 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Reed SheppardHOU | 19 min | 9.2 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tari EasonHOU | 22 min | 9.1 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marcus SmartHOU | 19 min | 6.9 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Svi MykhailiukUTAH | 17 min | 6.8 | 3.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle FilipowskiUTAH | 12 min | 6.6 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh GreenUTAH | 24 min | 5.9 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mo BambaUTAH | 15 min | 5.5 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh OkogieUTAH | 22 min | 5.4 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Jazz
−31 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 34 | 13.1 | Available |
| Darryn Peterson | 32 | 16.5 | Available |
| Jaxson Hayes | 25 | 18.3 | Available |
| Josh Green | 24 | 12.4 | Available |
| Josh Okogie | 22 | 13.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Collier | 19 | 13.7 | Available |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 17 | 13.9 | Available |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 17 | 15.1 | Available |
| Mo Bamba | 15 | 15.9 | Available |
| Kyle Filipowski | 12 | 16.7 | Available |
| Tony Bradley | 9 | 16.2 | Available |
| Harrison Ingram | 6 | 18.3 | Available |
Rockets
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 18.6 | Available |
| Alperen Sengun | 33 | 25.7 | Available |
| Kevin Durant | 33 | 25.9 | Available |
| Amen Thompson | 32 | 22.5 | Available |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 19.7 | Available |
| Tari Eason | 22 | 19.1 | Available |
| Marcus Smart | 19 | 16.1 | Available |
| Reed Sheppard | 19 | 18.7 | Available |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 8 | 17.0 | Available |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 5 | 20.1 | Available |
| Steven Adams | — | 20.9 | Out−1 |
| Clint Capela | — | 20.5 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jazz
4 listedLauri Markkanen F
−39 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 22.0 Game Score per 48
Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.
Jaren Jackson Jr. F
−27 EloOut25 min a game when healthy · 21.0 Game Score per 48
Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Keyonte George G
−10 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 17.1 Game Score per 48
George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.
Jusuf Nurkic C
−10 EloOut16 min a game when healthy · 18.4 Game Score per 48
Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.
Rockets
2 listedSteven Adams C
−1 EloOut17 min a game when healthy · 20.9 Game Score per 48
Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Clint Capela C
OutHead coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–8 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 3UTAH 106 @ HOU 140Picked HOU 92%Hit
- Feb 23UTAH 105 @ HOU 125Picked HOU 86%Hit
- Dec 1HOU 125 @ UTAH 133Picked HOU 81%Miss
- Nov 30HOU 129 @ UTAH 101Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Apr 2UTAH 105 @ HOU 143Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 121 @ UTAH 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 115 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Apr 11HOU 121 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss