Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 74%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: lineup changes favor the 76ers, the Raptors are on a back-to-back and the 76ers have home court.
- Likely out: Scottie Barnes (TOR) and Kawhi Leonard (TOR).
- It's moved toward the 76ers since we first logged it, from 69% to 74%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Raptors
Now 78%
82%
with a win
76%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
76ers
Now 90%
91%
with a win
86%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 69% to 74% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTScottie Barnes out · forecast PHI 75%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
76ers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 75%
- Fair odds
- PHI -278
- TOR +278 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TOR 108.1 – 115.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −60 | +63 | TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +190 Elo | PHI 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 110.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 109.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 108.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 107.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 15218th of 30 |
| 13th of 301521 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | −1.022nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Defense, adjusted | +1.49th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ BarrettTOR | 35 min | 22.8 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyrese MaxeyPHI | 34 min | 21.5 | 22.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaylen BrownPHI | 32 min | 21.2 | 23.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joel EmbiidPHI | 29 min | 19.8 | 16.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Immanuel QuickleyTOR60% to play | 32 min | 17.1 | 17.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| LeBron JamesPHI | 31 min | 16.2 | 13.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| VJ EdgecombePHI | 32 min | 12.5 | 14.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin Murray-BoylesTOR60% to play | 25 min | 12.1 | 13.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ja'Kobe WalterTOR | 31 min | 12.0 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jakob PoeltlTOR | 24 min | 10.8 | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamison BattleTOR | 21 min | 9.5 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anfernee SimonsPHI | 18 min | 9.1 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Malachi SmithTOR | 24 min | 8.7 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamal SheadTOR | 28 min | 8.5 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alijah MartinTOR | 15 min | 7.0 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kentavious Caldwell-PopePHI | 18 min | 5.7 | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jabari WalkerPHI | 12 min | 4.3 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Allen GravesTOR | 13 min | 4.3 | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dean WadePHI | 21 min | 4.1 | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Raptors
−60 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 35 | 21.3 | Available |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 31 | 14.8 | Available |
| Jamal Shead | 28 | 15.1 | Available |
| Jakob Poeltl | 24 | 21.0 | Available |
| Malachi Smith | 24 | 15.6 | Available |
| Jamison Battle | 21 | 15.1 | Available |
| Immanuel Quickley | 19 | 21.4 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 15 | 20.2 | Day-To-Day−4 |
| Alijah Martin | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Allen Graves | 13 | 18.6 | Available |
| Kyle Anderson | 7 | 16.2 | Available |
| Jaden Bradley | 5 | 18.6 | Available |
76ers
+63 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 34 | 24.4 | Available |
| VJ Edgecombe | 32 | 17.2 | Available |
| Jaylen Brown | 32 | 25.5 | Available |
| LeBron James | 31 | 25.1 | Available |
| Joel Embiid | 29 | 29.6 | Available |
| Dean Wade | 21 | 15.3 | Available |
| Anfernee Simons | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 18 | 13.8 | Available |
| Jabari Walker | 12 | 15.6 | Available |
| Tacko Fall | 5 | 17.8 | Available |
| Adem Bona | — | 14.8 | Out |
| Dominick Barlow | — | 15.9 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Raptors
6 listedKawhi Leonard F
−65 EloOut30 min a game when healthy · 31.0 Game Score per 48
Leonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Scottie Barnes F
−33 EloOut35 min a game when healthy · 23.6 Game Score per 48
Barnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Immanuel Quickley G
−9 EloDay-To-Day32 min a game when healthy · 21.4 Game Score per 48
Quickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Collin Murray-Boyles F
−4 EloDay-To-Day25 min a game when healthy · 20.2 Game Score per 48
Murray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.
Trayce Jackson-Davis F
−1 EloDay-To-Day6 min a game when healthy · 19.2 Game Score per 48
Jackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.
Nate Bittle C
OutBittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.
76ers
3 listedAdem Bona C
OutBona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.
Dominick Barlow F
OutHead coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.
Ariel Hukporti C
OutHukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–6 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Jan 12PHI 115 @ TOR 102Picked PHI 59%Hit
- Jan 11PHI 115 @ TOR 116Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Nov 19TOR 121 @ PHI 112Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Nov 8TOR 120 @ PHI 130Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Mar 30TOR 127 @ PHI 109Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 105 @ TOR 118Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Feb 11TOR 106 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 81%Miss
- Oct 25PHI 107 @ TOR 115Picked PHI 65%Miss