Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Rockets favored by 6.5, and the forecast follows it (Rockets 68%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Rockets less, at 63%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1550 Elo), the Rockets have home court and the Warriors traveled east across time zones.
- Likely out: Kristaps Porzingis (GS) and Jimmy Butler III (GS).
- It's moved toward the Warriors since we first logged it, from 29% to 32%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Warriors
Now 86%
88%
with a win
85%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Rockets
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 71% to 68% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML GS +196 / HOU -237
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.0%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -208
- GS +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- GS 107.5 – 114.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +16 | GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +93 Elo | HOU 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 115.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 106.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.2 | Margin | +9.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 107.47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 278–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 27 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15462nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 16048th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.1 | Offense, adjusted | 0.017th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Defense, adjusted | +4.66th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen CurryGS | 29 min | 23.0 | 32.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin DurantHOU | 33 min | 21.8 | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alperen SengunHOU | 33 min | 19.3 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yaxel LendeborgGS | 30 min | 18.2 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jabari Smith Jr.HOU | 35 min | 15.6 | 16.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandin PodziemskiGS | 32 min | 15.3 | 17.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Amen ThompsonHOU | 32 min | 14.9 | 11.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fred VanVleetHOU | 29 min | 12.1 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| De'Anthony MeltonGS | 23 min | 10.1 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Georges NiangGS | 22 min | 9.1 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Reed SheppardHOU | 19 min | 8.8 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tari EasonHOU | 22 min | 8.7 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gui SantosGS | 19 min | 7.7 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charles BasseyGS | 16 min | 7.2 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marcus SmartHOU | 19 min | 6.6 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Al HorfordGS | 18 min | 5.8 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Draymond GreenGS | 27 min | 5.8 | 2.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Warriors
+37 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 32 | 20.0 | Available |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 30 | 20.8 | Available |
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 29.4 | Available |
| Draymond Green | 27 | 14.9 | Available |
| De'Anthony Melton | 23 | 19.3 | Available |
| Georges Niang | 22 | 16.4 | Available |
| Gui Santos | 19 | 18.4 | Available |
| Al Horford | 18 | 19.0 | Available |
| Charles Bassey | 16 | 18.9 | Available |
| Graham Ike | 9 | 18.4 | Available |
| LJ Cryer | 8 | 17.0 | Available |
| Malevy Leons | 6 | 14.6 | Available |
Rockets
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 18.6 | Available |
| Alperen Sengun | 33 | 25.7 | Available |
| Kevin Durant | 33 | 25.9 | Available |
| Amen Thompson | 32 | 22.5 | Available |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 19.7 | Available |
| Tari Eason | 22 | 19.1 | Available |
| Marcus Smart | 19 | 16.1 | Available |
| Reed Sheppard | 19 | 18.7 | Available |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 8 | 17.0 | Available |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 5 | 20.1 | Available |
| Steven Adams | — | 20.9 | Out−1 |
| Clint Capela | — | 20.5 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Warriors
6 listedJimmy Butler III F
−44 EloOut28 min a game when healthy · 27.5 Game Score per 48
Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Kristaps Porzingis C
−31 EloOut25 min a game when healthy · 25.4 Game Score per 48
Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.
Brandon Williams G
−4 EloOut15 min a game when healthy · 20.0 Game Score per 48
Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.
Gary Payton II G
OutPayton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.
Will Richard G
OutRichard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.
Moses Moody G
OutMoody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Rockets
2 listedSteven Adams C
−1 EloOut17 min a game when healthy · 20.9 Game Score per 48
Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Clint Capela C
OutHead coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 11–7 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.
- Apr 5HOU 117 @ GS 116Picked HOU 62%Hit
- Mar 5GS 115 @ HOU 113Picked HOU 77%Miss
- Nov 26HOU 104 @ GS 100Picked GS 61%Miss
- May 4GS 103 @ HOU 89PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- May 2HOU 115 @ GS 107PlayoffsPicked GS 68%Miss
- Apr 30GS 116 @ HOU 131PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Hit
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit