Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Suns at 63%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Suns and the Suns have home court.
- Likely out: Mark Williams (PHX) and Kon Knueppel (CHA).
- It's moved toward the Hornets since we first logged it, from 33% to 37%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hornets
Now 32%
35%
with a win
30%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Suns
Now 35%
38%
with a win
31%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 67% to 63% over 5 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTBrandon Miller back · forecast PHX 65%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Suns 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Fair odds
- PHX -172
- CHA +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHA 107.9 – 112.0 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | −10 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +87 Elo | PHX 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3098.8 | Points scored | 112.816th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.5 | Margin | −5.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 117.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 100.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 15571st of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Offense, adjusted | −0.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.3 | Defense, adjusted | −0.717th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin BookerPHX | 31 min | 22.8 | 27.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon MillerCHA60% to play | 28 min | 19.0 | 15.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Naz ReidCHA | 31 min | 16.8 | 18.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Grayson AllenCHA | 27 min | 15.9 | 17.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dillon BrooksPHX | 27 min | 15.7 | 13.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jalen GreenPHX | 25 min | 14.1 | 12.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Coby WhiteCHA | 18 min | 13.1 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Miles BridgesPHX | 25 min | 13.0 | 12.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Moussa DiabateCHA60% to play | 29 min | 8.8 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin GillespiePHX | 22 min | 8.1 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan KalkbrennerCHA | 23 min | 7.5 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Royce O'NealeCHA | 22 min | 7.4 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sion JamesCHA | 27 min | 7.2 | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Khaman MaluachPHX | 18 min | 6.7 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tidjane SalaunCHA | 16 min | 6.7 | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke KennardPHX | 17 min | 6.7 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan GoodwinPHX | 16 min | 6.2 | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oso IghodaroPHX | 20 min | 6.0 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan DunnPHX | 19 min | 5.7 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Christian AndersonCHA | 13 min | 4.4 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hannes SteinbachCHA | 11 min | 2.9 | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Hornets
−56 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 31 | 18.8 | Available |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 18.2 | Available |
| Sion James | 27 | 12.7 | Available |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 23 | 19.8 | Available |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 13.4 | Available |
| Coby White | 18 | 20.1 | Available |
| Moussa Diabate | 18 | 19.2 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Brandon Miller | 17 | 19.4 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12.3 | Available |
| Christian Anderson | 13 | 15.6 | Available |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 16.1 | Available |
| Liam McNeeley | 10 | 15.7 | Available |
Suns
−10 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 31 | 24.0 | Available |
| Dillon Brooks | 27 | 15.8 | Available |
| Miles Bridges | 25 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jalen Green | 25 | 18.4 | Available |
| Collin Gillespie | 22 | 17.7 | Available |
| Oso Ighodaro | 20 | 15.9 | Available |
| Ryan Dunn | 19 | 14.5 | Available |
| Khaman Maluach | 18 | 17.4 | Available |
| Luke Kennard | 17 | 16.9 | Available |
| Jordan Goodwin | 16 | 17.3 | Available |
| Pat Spencer | 6 | 15.7 | Available |
| Rasheer Fleming | 4 | 16.8 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hornets
5 listedKon Knueppel G
−26 EloOut25 min a game when healthy · 22.6 Game Score per 48
Knueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Brandon Miller F
−5 EloDay-To-Day27 min a game when healthy · 19.4 Game Score per 48
Miller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Moussa Diabate F
−5 EloDay-To-Day28 min a game when healthy · 19.2 Game Score per 48
Diabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Grant Williams F
OutWilliams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.
Dennis Schroder G
OutSchroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Suns
1 listedMark Williams C
−13 EloOut22 min a game when healthy · 21.3 Game Score per 48
Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 0–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–4 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.