Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1550 Elo), lineup changes favor the Warriors and the Spurs have home court.
- Likely out: Kristaps Porzingis (GS) and Jimmy Butler III (GS).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Warriors
Now 86%
88%
with a win
85%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Spurs
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
SA went from 71% to 71% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Spurs 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 67%
- Fair odds
- SA -248
- GS +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- GS 109.8 – 116.7 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1670 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | 0 | GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +119 Elo | SA 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 118.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 107.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.2 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 116.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 105.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 278–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 27 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 147025th of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 16702nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.1 | Offense, adjusted | +2.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Defense, adjusted | +4.75th of 30 |
Player props
Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen CurryGS | 29 min | 23.4 | 32.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor WembanyamaSA | 27 min | 23.2 | 32.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yaxel LendeborgGS | 30 min | 18.5 | 23.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan HarperSA | 29 min | 15.9 | 17.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandin PodziemskiGS | 32 min | 15.6 | 17.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Stephon CastleSA | 28 min | 14.6 | 14.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| De'Aaron FoxSA | 27 min | 13.4 | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Devin VassellSA60% to play | 28 min | 11.1 | 11.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Keldon JohnsonSA | 24 min | 10.3 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| De'Anthony MeltonGS | 23 min | 10.3 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Julian ChampagnieSA | 24 min | 9.3 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Georges NiangGS | 22 min | 9.2 | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gui SantosGS | 19 min | 7.8 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charles BasseyGS | 16 min | 7.3 | 10.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Al HorfordGS | 18 min | 5.9 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Draymond GreenGS | 27 min | 5.9 | 2.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Harrison BarnesSA | 15 min | 5.6 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke KornetSA | 14 min | 3.7 | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carter BryantSA | 10 min | 3.5 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Warriors
+37 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 32 | 20.0 | Available |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 30 | 20.8 | Available |
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 29.4 | Available |
| Draymond Green | 27 | 14.9 | Available |
| De'Anthony Melton | 23 | 19.3 | Available |
| Georges Niang | 22 | 16.4 | Available |
| Gui Santos | 19 | 18.4 | Available |
| Al Horford | 18 | 19.0 | Available |
| Charles Bassey | 16 | 18.9 | Available |
| Graham Ike | 9 | 18.4 | Available |
| LJ Cryer | 8 | 17.0 | Available |
| Malevy Leons | 6 | 14.6 | Available |
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.3 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Warriors
6 listedJimmy Butler III F
−44 EloOut28 min a game when healthy · 27.5 Game Score per 48
Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Kristaps Porzingis C
−31 EloOut25 min a game when healthy · 25.4 Game Score per 48
Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.
Brandon Williams G
−4 EloOut15 min a game when healthy · 20.0 Game Score per 48
Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.
Gary Payton II G
OutPayton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.
Will Richard G
OutRichard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.
Moses Moody G
OutMoody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Spurs
3 listedTobias Harris F
−1 EloOut31 min a game when healthy · 20.6 Game Score per 48
Harris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Devin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–5 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.