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New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Away

Pelicans

4-7

65%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

35%

The pick
NO · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
119–115
Fair odds
-184

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pelicans at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Pelicans rate higher (1421 to 1352 Elo) and the Kings have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pelicans

Now 2%

2%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pelicans 65%

Solid
NO 65%SAC 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NO 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NO -1
NO 55%
Fair odds
NO -184
SAC +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
NO 119.3 – 114.7 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNOSACWhy
Team rating14211352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40−40SAC and NO on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+16+17NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsNO +33 EloNO 54.7%
Market-implied ratingsNO 65.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNO 64.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
NOStatSAC
8th of 30117.5Points scored108.324th of 30
29th of 30122.4Points allowed121.027th of 30
20th of 30−4.9Margin−12.728th of 30
17th of 30111.2Offense rating106.024th of 30
26th of 30115.8Defense rating118.428th of 30
5th of 30102.7Pace102.26th of 30
18th of 284–6Last 101–926th of 28
22nd of 301–4Road vs home0–627th of 30
28th of 301461Opponent Elo151712th of 30
23rd of 301421Elo rating135227th of 30
10th of 30+1.3Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.8Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Kings

+17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3517.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3116.6Available
Domantas Sabonis2923.4Available
Zach LaVine2917.6Available
Keegan Murray2414.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2016.7Available
Leaky Black1812.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1715.4Available
Malik Monk1417.4Available
Precious Achiuwa1215.7Day-To-Day
Daeqwon Plowden512.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PelicansKings
130013501400145015001550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trey Murphy III F

    Day-To-Day

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Day-To-Day

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNOSAC
Against the spread6–34–5
Last 106–34–5
Favorite1–1—
Underdog5–24–5
Overs–unders5–44–5
Overs–unders, last 105–44–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NO 9–4 SAC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.