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Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

DAZN MIN

Away

Timberwolves

8-3

80%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

20%

The pick
MIN · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
119–108
Fair odds
-397

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · DAZN MIN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 80%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1352 Elo), lineup changes favor the Kings and the Kings have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

97%

with a win

97%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Timberwolves 80%

Strong
MIN 80%SAC 20%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 80%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -7
MIN 76%
Fair odds
MIN -397
SAC +397 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIN 118.5 – 108.0 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINSACWhy
Team rating16381352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−33+17MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMIN +200 EloMIN 76.0%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 80.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 79.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatSAC
6th of 30118.1Points scored108.324th of 30
6th of 30107.0Points allowed121.027th of 30
3rd of 30+11.1Margin−12.728th of 30
8th of 30114.8Offense rating106.024th of 30
1st of 30104.0Defense rating118.428th of 30
13th of 30101.7Pace102.26th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 101–926th of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home0–627th of 30
21st of 301492Opponent Elo151712th of 30
5th of 301638Elo rating135227th of 30
9th of 30+1.5Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
7th of 30+3.0Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1715.9Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Kings

+17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3517.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3116.6Available
Domantas Sabonis2923.4Available
Zach LaVine2917.6Available
Keegan Murray2414.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2016.7Available
Leaky Black1812.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1715.4Available
Malik Monk1417.4Available
Precious Achiuwa1215.7Day-To-Day
Daeqwon Plowden512.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TimberwolvesKings
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    Out

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Day-To-Day

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINSAC
Against the spread9–14–5
Last 109–14–5
Favorite4–1—
Underdog5–04–5
Overs–unders5–54–5
Overs–unders, last 105–54–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 6–5 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.