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Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

ESPN, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Away

Warriors

8-3

58%

at

Home

Mavericks

7-4

42%

The pick
GS · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–114
Fair odds
-137

Your pick

American Airlines Center · ESPN, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Warriors at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Warriors rate higher (1550 to 1468 Elo) and the Mavericks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Warriors

Now 84%

86%

with a win

82%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Mavericks

Now 17%

19%

with a win

15%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Warriors 58%

Lean
GS 58%DAL 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
GS 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
GS -1.5
GS 56%
Fair odds
GS -137
DAL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
GS 116.1 – 113.7 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorGSDALWhy
Team rating15501468Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+37+38GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsGS +45 EloGS 56.5%
Market-implied ratingsGS 58.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastGS 57.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
GSStatDAL
2nd of 30120.4Points scored114.914th of 30
12th of 30111.2Points allowed110.39th of 30
4th of 30+9.2Margin+4.612th of 30
2nd of 30118.3Offense rating113.311th of 30
11th of 30109.3Defense rating108.810th of 30
21st of 30100.8Pace100.820th of 30
3rd of 288–2Last 107–35th of 28
12th of 302–2Road vs home5–27th of 30
11th of 301518Opponent Elo149319th of 30
9th of 301550Elo rating146820th of 30
5th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted+0.812th of 30
13th of 30+0.6Defense, adjusted−0.918th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Warriors

+37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Brandin Podziemski3220.0Available
Yaxel Lendeborg3020.8Available
Stephen Curry2929.4Available
Draymond Green2714.9Available
De'Anthony Melton2319.3Available
Georges Niang2216.4Available
Gui Santos1918.4Available
Al Horford1819.0Available
Charles Bassey1618.9Available
Graham Ike918.4Available
LJ Cryer817.0Available
Malevy Leons614.6Available

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WarriorsMavericks
1300135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Warriors

6 listed

  • Gary Payton II G

    Out

    Payton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Will Richard G

    Out

    Richard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Brandon Williams G

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.

  • Kristaps Porzingis C

    Out

    Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.

  • Moses Moody G

    Out

    Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

  • Jimmy Butler III F

    Out

    Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonGSDAL
Against the spread6–27–3
Last 106–27–3
Favorite2–12–1
Underdog4–15–2
Overs–unders4–42–8
Overs–unders, last 104–42–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

GS 5–6 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.