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Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Nuggets

5-4

78%

at

Home

Jazz

1-10

22%

The pick
DEN · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
120–110
Fair odds
-349

Your pick

Delta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 78%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1309 Elo), the Jazz have home court and lineup changes favor the Nuggets.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Nuggets

Now 80%

81%

with a win

78%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Jazz

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Nuggets 78%

Strong
DEN 78%UTAH 22%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DEN 78%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DEN -8
DEN 78%
Fair odds
DEN -349
UTAH +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DEN 119.9 – 110.4 UTAH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENUTAHWhy
Team rating15421309Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+19−7DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −25, Lauri Markkanen (40% to sit) −15, Keyonte George −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDEN +223 EloDEN 78.3%
Market-implied ratingsDEN 77.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDEN 77.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatUTAH
15th of 30113.6Points scored106.528th of 30
14th of 30112.8Points allowed117.623rd of 30
17th of 30+0.8Margin−11.226th of 30
9th of 30114.1Offense rating102.529th of 30
23rd of 30113.3Defense rating113.321st of 30
27th of 3098.2Pace102.011th of 30
12th of 302–2Road vs home1–525th of 30
15th of 301508Opponent Elo15266th of 30
11th of 301542Elo rating130930th of 30
7th of 30+1.9Offense, adjusted−2.225th of 30
15th of 300.0Defense, adjusted−4.027th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jamal Murray3326.6Available
Nikola Jokic3336.5Available
Christian Braun2919.1Available
Cameron Johnson2718.9Available
Aaron Gordon2622.3Available
DeMar DeRozan2019.3Available
Spencer Jones1912.9Available
Trevon Brazile1618.0Available
Marvin Bagley III1219.3Available
Tyus Jones814.4Available
Bryce Hopkins616.9Available
Ryan Nembhard416.2Available

Jazz

−7 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Ace Bailey3313.1Available
Darryn Peterson3116.5Available
Jaxson Hayes2418.3Available
Josh Green2312.4Available
Josh Okogie2113.6Available
Lauri Markkanen2022.0Day-To-Day−15
Isaiah Collier1813.7Available
Svi Mykhailiuk1613.9Available
Brice Sensabaugh1515.1Available
Mo Bamba1415.9Available
Kyle Filipowski1116.7Available
Tony Bradley716.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsJazz
120013001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Nuggets

1 listed

  • Julian Strawther G

    Out

    Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.

Jazz

4 listed

  • Lauri Markkanen F

    Day-To-Day

    Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.

  • Keyonte George G

    Out

    George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.

  • Jusuf Nurkic C

    Out

    Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. F

    Out

    Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDENUTAH
Against the spread3–52–8
Last 103–52–8
Favorite3–30–1
Underdog0–22–7
Overs–unders4–41–9
Overs–unders, last 104–41–9

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DEN 11–1 UTAH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.