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Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Kings

1-10

14%

at

Home

Warriors

8-3

86%

The pick
GS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
108–122
Fair odds
-610

Your pick

Chase Center

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Warriors at 86%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Warriors rate higher (1550 to 1352 Elo), the Warriors have home court and lineup changes favor the Warriors.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Warriors

Now 84%

85%

with a win

80%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Warriors 86%

Strong
SAC 14%GS 86%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
GS 86%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
GS -9
GS 81%
Fair odds
GS -610
SAC +610 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
SAC 107.9 – 121.6 GS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSACGSWhy
Team rating13521550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+18+37SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsGS +253 EloGS 81.1%
Market-implied ratingsGS 86.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastGS 85.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors compared, with each team's league rank
SACStatGS
24th of 30108.3Points scored120.42nd of 30
27th of 30121.0Points allowed111.212th of 30
28th of 30−12.7Margin+9.24th of 30
24th of 30106.0Offense rating118.32nd of 30
28th of 30118.4Defense rating109.311th of 30
6th of 30102.2Pace100.821st of 30
26th of 281–9Last 108–23rd of 28
22nd of 301–4Road vs home6–13rd of 30
12th of 301517Opponent Elo151811th of 30
27th of 301352Elo rating15509th of 30
27th of 30−2.7Offense, adjusted+2.15th of 30
28th of 30−4.0Defense, adjusted+0.613th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Kings

+18 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3617.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3216.6Available
Domantas Sabonis3123.4Available
Zach LaVine3017.6Available
Keegan Murray2514.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2116.7Available
Leaky Black1912.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1815.4Available
Malik Monk1517.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden712.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out
Precious Achiuwa—15.7Out

Warriors

+37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Brandin Podziemski3220.0Available
Yaxel Lendeborg3020.8Available
Stephen Curry2929.4Available
Draymond Green2714.9Available
De'Anthony Melton2319.3Available
Georges Niang2216.4Available
Gui Santos1918.4Available
Al Horford1819.0Available
Charles Bassey1618.9Available
Graham Ike918.4Available
LJ Cryer817.0Available
Malevy Leons614.6Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsWarriors
1300135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Out

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Warriors

6 listed

  • Gary Payton II G

    Out

    Payton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Will Richard G

    Out

    Richard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Brandon Williams G

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.

  • Kristaps Porzingis C

    Out

    Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.

  • Moses Moody G

    Out

    Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

  • Jimmy Butler III F

    Out

    Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSACGS
Against the spread4–56–2
Last 104–56–2
Favorite—2–1
Underdog4–54–1
Overs–unders4–54–4
Overs–unders, last 104–54–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SAC 6–6 GS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.