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Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Timberwolves

8-3

41%

at

Home

Thunder

8-3

59%

The pick
OKC · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
109–112
Fair odds
-142

Your pick

Paycom Center · ESPN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 59%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Timberwolves, the Thunder have home court and the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1638 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

97%

with a win

97%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Thunder

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Thunder 59%

Lean
MIN 41%OKC 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
OKC 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -0.5
OKC 51%
Fair odds
OKC -142
MIN +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIN 109.2 – 111.9 OKC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINOKCWhy
Team rating16381657Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−33−80MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsOKC +8 EloOKC 51.2%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 59.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 58.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatOKC
6th of 30118.1Points scored111.420th of 30
6th of 30107.0Points allowed105.94th of 30
3rd of 30+11.1Margin+5.511th of 30
8th of 30114.8Offense rating110.518th of 30
1st of 30104.0Defense rating105.15th of 30
13th of 30101.7Pace100.622nd of 30
5th of 287–3Last 107–35th of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home5–01st of 30
21st of 301492Opponent Elo151414th of 30
5th of 301638Elo rating16573rd of 30
9th of 30+1.5Offense, adjusted+0.614th of 30
7th of 30+3.0Defense, adjusted+4.74th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1715.9Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Thunder

−80 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3136.4Available
Ajay Mitchell2824.4Available
Jared McCain2717.9Available
Isaiah Hartenstein2423.7Available
Aday Mara2318.6Available
Bennett Stirtz2117.9Available
Kenrich Williams2117.8Available
Micah Peavy2012.8Available
Alex Caruso1822.1Available
Josh Dix1316.4Available
Nique Clifford1011.9Available
Brooks Barnhizer513.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TimberwolvesThunder
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    Out

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Thunder

5 listed

  • Jaylin Williams F

    Out

    Williams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.

  • Thomas Sorber C

    Out

    Sorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Cason Wallace G

    Out

    Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.

  • Chet Holmgren C

    Out

    Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.

  • Jalen Williams G

    Out

    Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINOKC
Against the spread9–16–3
Last 109–16–3
Favorite4–14–2
Underdog5–02–1
Overs–unders5–52–7
Overs–unders, last 105–52–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 7–10 OKC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.