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Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Mavericks

7-4

33%

at

Home

Nuggets

5-4

67%

The pick
DEN · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–118
Fair odds
-200

Your pick

Ball Arena · NBCSN, NBC, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1468 Elo), the Nuggets have home court and lineup changes favor the Mavericks.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Mavericks

Now 17%

20%

with a win

16%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Nuggets

Now 80%

82%

with a win

76%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Nuggets 67%

Solid
DAL 33%DEN 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DEN 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DEN -3.5
DEN 63%
Fair odds
DEN -200
DAL +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 112.5 – 117.8 DEN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALDENWhy
Team rating14681542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+38+19DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDEN +91 EloDEN 62.8%
Market-implied ratingsDEN 67.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDEN 66.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatDEN
14th of 30114.9Points scored113.615th of 30
9th of 30110.3Points allowed112.814th of 30
12th of 30+4.6Margin+0.817th of 30
11th of 30113.3Offense rating114.19th of 30
10th of 30108.8Defense rating113.323rd of 30
20th of 30100.8Pace98.227th of 30
12th of 302–2Road vs home2–214th of 30
19th of 301493Opponent Elo150815th of 30
20th of 301468Elo rating154211th of 30
12th of 30+0.8Offense, adjusted+1.97th of 30
18th of 30−0.9Defense, adjusted0.015th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Nuggets

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jamal Murray3326.6Available
Nikola Jokic3336.5Available
Christian Braun2919.1Available
Cameron Johnson2718.9Available
Aaron Gordon2622.3Available
DeMar DeRozan2019.3Available
Spencer Jones1912.9Available
Trevon Brazile1618.0Available
Marvin Bagley III1219.3Available
Tyus Jones814.4Available
Bryce Hopkins616.9Available
Ryan Nembhard416.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksNuggets
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Nuggets

1 listed

  • Julian Strawther G

    Out

    Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALDEN
Against the spread7–33–5
Last 107–33–5
Favorite2–13–3
Underdog5–20–2
Overs–unders2–84–4
Overs–unders, last 102–84–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 4–7 DEN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.