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New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Pelicans

4-7

25%

at

Home

Thunder

8-3

75%

The pick
OKC · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
110–119
Fair odds
-306

Your pick

Paycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 75%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1421 Elo), lineup changes favor the Pelicans and the Thunder have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pelicans

Now 2%

2%

with a win

2%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Thunder

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Thunder 75%

Strong
NO 25%OKC 75%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
OKC 75%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -6.5
OKC 73%
Fair odds
OKC -306
NO +306 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
NO 110.0 – 118.6 OKC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNOOKCWhy
Team rating14211657Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+16−80NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsOKC +176 EloOKC 73.3%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 75.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 75.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder compared, with each team's league rank
NOStatOKC
8th of 30117.5Points scored111.420th of 30
29th of 30122.4Points allowed105.94th of 30
20th of 30−4.9Margin+5.511th of 30
17th of 30111.2Offense rating110.518th of 30
26th of 30115.8Defense rating105.15th of 30
5th of 30102.7Pace100.622nd of 30
18th of 284–6Last 107–35th of 28
22nd of 301–4Road vs home5–01st of 30
28th of 301461Opponent Elo151414th of 30
23rd of 301421Elo rating16573rd of 30
10th of 30+1.3Offense, adjusted+0.614th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Defense, adjusted+4.74th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.8Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Thunder

−80 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3136.4Available
Ajay Mitchell2824.4Available
Jared McCain2717.9Available
Isaiah Hartenstein2423.7Available
Aday Mara2318.6Available
Bennett Stirtz2117.9Available
Kenrich Williams2117.8Available
Micah Peavy2012.8Available
Alex Caruso1822.1Available
Josh Dix1316.4Available
Nique Clifford1011.9Available
Brooks Barnhizer513.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PelicansThunder
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trey Murphy III F

    Day-To-Day

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Thunder

5 listed

  • Jaylin Williams F

    Out

    Williams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.

  • Thomas Sorber C

    Out

    Sorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Cason Wallace G

    Out

    Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.

  • Chet Holmgren C

    Out

    Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.

  • Jalen Williams G

    Out

    Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNOOKC
Against the spread6–36–3
Last 106–36–3
Favorite1–14–2
Underdog5–22–1
Overs–unders5–42–7
Overs–unders, last 105–42–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NO 1–13 OKC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.